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Price Forecasting in the Day-Ahead Energy Market by an Iterative Method with Separate Normal Price and Price Spike Frameworks

Author

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  • Sergey Voronin

    (LUT Energy, Laboratory of Electricity Markets and Power Systems, Lappeenranta University of Technology, P.O. Box 20, Lappeenranta 53851, Finland)

  • Jarmo Partanen

    (LUT Energy, Laboratory of Electricity Markets and Power Systems, Lappeenranta University of Technology, P.O. Box 20, Lappeenranta 53851, Finland)

Abstract

A forecasting methodology for prediction of both normal prices and price spikes in the day-ahead energy market is proposed. The method is based on an iterative strategy implemented as a combination of two modules separately applied for normal price and price spike predictions. The normal price module is a mixture of wavelet transform, linear AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and nonlinear neural network models. The probability of a price spike occurrence is produced by a compound classifier in which three single classification techniques are used jointly to make a decision. Combined with the spike value prediction technique, the output from the price spike module aims to provide a comprehensive price spike forecast. The overall electricity price forecast is formed as combined normal price and price spike forecasts. The forecast accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated with real data from the Finnish Nord Pool Spot day-ahead energy market. The proposed method provides significant improvement in both normal price and price spike prediction accuracy compared with some of the most popular forecast techniques applied for case studies of energy markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Voronin & Jarmo Partanen, 2013. "Price Forecasting in the Day-Ahead Energy Market by an Iterative Method with Separate Normal Price and Price Spike Frameworks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-24, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:11:p:5897-5920:d:30347
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    2. George P. Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & George Evangelidis & Panagiotis G. Papaioannou & Dionysios S. Georgiadis, 2015. "Co-Movement Analysis of Italian and Greek Electricity Market Wholesale Prices by Using a Wavelet Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-30, October.
    3. Loizidis, Stylianos & Kyprianou, Andreas & Georghiou, George E., 2024. "Electricity market price forecasting using ELM and Bootstrap analysis: A case study of the German and Finnish Day-Ahead markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
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    5. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
    6. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, August.
    7. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Automated Variable Selection and Shrinkage for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, August.
    8. Zorana Božić & Dušan Dobromirov & Jovana Arsić & Mladen Radišić & Beata Ślusarczyk, 2020. "Power Exchange Prices: Comparison of Volatility in European Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    9. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Selection of Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Naoya Yamaguchi & Maiya Hori & Yoshinari Ideguchi, 2018. "Minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost in electricity markets based on the prediction error of energy consumption," Papers 1803.04532, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2018.
    11. Hryshchuk, Antanina & Lessmann, Stefan, 2018. "Deregulated day-ahead electricity markets in Southeast Europe: Price forecasting and comparative structural analysis," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-009, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    12. Bijay Neupane & Wei Lee Woon & Zeyar Aung, 2017. "Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, January.
    13. Bokde, Neeraj Dhanraj & Tranberg, Bo & Andresen, Gorm Bruun, 2021. "Short-term CO2 emissions forecasting based on decomposition approaches and its impact on electricity market scheduling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    14. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    15. Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses & Antonio Muñoz, 2016. "Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-27, March.
    16. Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2024. "Forecasting the Occurrence of Electricity Price Spikes: A Statistical-Economic Investigation Study," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, February.
    17. George P. Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & Anargyros Dramountanis & Panagiotis G. Papaioannou, 2016. "Analysis and Modeling for Short- to Medium-Term Load Forecasting Using a Hybrid Manifold Learning Principal Component Model and Comparison with Classical Statistical Models (SARIMAX, Exponential Smoot," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-40, August.
    18. Halužan, Marko & Verbič, Miroslav & Zorić, Jelena, 2020. "Performance of alternative electricity price forecasting methods: Findings from the Greek and Hungarian power exchanges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    19. Kai Ma & Congshan Wang & Jie Yang & Qiuxia Yang & Yazhou Yuan, 2017. "Economic Dispatch with Demand Response in Smart Grid: Bargaining Model and Solutions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, August.
    20. Yongxiu He & Yangyang Liu & Tian Xia & Min Du & Hongzhen Guo, 2014. "The Optimal Price Ratio of Typical Energy Sources in Beijing Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-24, April.
    21. Francisco Martínez-Álvarez & Alicia Troncoso & Gualberto Asencio-Cortés & José C. Riquelme, 2015. "A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Electricity-Related Time Series Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-32, November.
    22. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    23. Sai, Wei & Pan, Zehua & Liu, Siyu & Jiao, Zhenjun & Zhong, Zheng & Miao, Bin & Chan, Siew Hwa, 2023. "Event-driven forecasting of wholesale electricity price and frequency regulation price using machine learning algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).

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