IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i8p2151-d534714.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting and Modelling the Uncertainty of Low Voltage Network Demand and the Effect of Renewable Energy Sources

Author

Listed:
  • Feras Alasali

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, The Hashemite University, Zarqa 13113, Jordan)

  • Husam Foudeh

    (School of Aerospace, Transport and Manufacturing, Cranfield University, Wharley End, Bedford MK43 0AL, UK)

  • Esraa Mousa Ali

    (Department of Aircraft Maintenance, Amman Arab University, Amman 11953, Jordan)

  • Khaled Nusair

    (Protection and Metering Department, National Electric Power Company, Amman 11181, Jordan)

  • William Holderbaum

    (Aston Institute of Materials Research, Aston University, Birmingham B47ET, UK)

Abstract

More and more households are using renewable energy sources, and this will continue as the world moves towards a clean energy future and new patterns in demands for electricity. This creates significant novel challenges for Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) such as volatile net demand behavior and predicting Low Voltage (LV) demand. There is a lack of understanding of modern LV networks’ demand and renewable energy sources behavior. This article starts with an investigation into the unique characteristics of householder demand behavior in Jordan, connected to Photovoltaics (PV) systems. Previous studies have focused mostly on forecasting LV level demand without considering renewable energy sources, disaggregation demand and the weather conditions at the LV level. In this study, we provide detailed LV demand analysis and a variety of forecasting methods in terms of a probabilistic, new optimization learning algorithm called the Golden Ratio Optimization Method (GROM) for an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for rolling and point forecasting. Short-term forecasting models have been designed and developed to generate future scenarios for different disaggregation demand levels from households, small cities, net demands and PV system output. The results show that the volatile behavior of LV networks connected to the PV system creates substantial forecasting challenges. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the ANN-GROM model improved by 41.2% for household demand forecast compared to the traditional ANN model.

Suggested Citation

  • Feras Alasali & Husam Foudeh & Esraa Mousa Ali & Khaled Nusair & William Holderbaum, 2021. "Forecasting and Modelling the Uncertainty of Low Voltage Network Demand and the Effect of Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-31, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:2151-:d:534714
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/8/2151/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/8/2151/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feras Alasali & Khaled Nusair & Lina Alhmoud & Eyad Zarour, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand and Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Daniel Ramos & Pedro Faria & Zita Vale & João Mourinho & Regina Correia, 2020. "Industrial Facility Electricity Consumption Forecast Using Artificial Neural Networks and Incremental Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Sun, Mei & Li, Juan & Gao, Cuixia & Han, Dun, 2017. "Identifying regime shifts in the US electricity market based on price fluctuations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 658-666.
    4. Christopher Bennett & Rodney A. Stewart & Junwei Lu, 2014. "Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables and Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecast Models for Residential Low Voltage Distribution Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-23, April.
    5. Bennett, Christopher J. & Stewart, Rodney A. & Lu, Jun Wei, 2014. "Forecasting low voltage distribution network demand profiles using a pattern recognition based expert system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 200-212.
    6. Khaled Nusair & Feras Alasali, 2020. "Optimal Power Flow Management System for a Power Network with Stochastic Renewable Energy Resources Using Golden Ratio Optimization Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-46, July.
    7. Nantian Huang & Guobo Lu & Dianguo Xu, 2016. "A Permutation Importance-Based Feature Selection Method for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using Random Forest," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-24, September.
    8. Cheng-Wen Lee & Bing-Yi Lin, 2016. "Application of Hybrid Quantum Tabu Search with Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, October.
    9. Cheng-Ming Lee & Chia-Nan Ko, 2016. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Adaptive Annealing Learning Algorithm Based Reinforcement Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, November.
    10. Taylor, James W. & de Menezes, Lilian M. & McSharry, Patrick E., 2006. "A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16.
    11. Shree Krishna Acharya & Young-Min Wi & Jaehee Lee, 2019. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for a Single Household Based on Convolution Neural Networks Using Data Augmentation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    12. Deb, Chirag & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Junjing & Lee, Siew Eang & Shah, Kwok Wei, 2017. "A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 902-924.
    13. Luis Hernandez & Carlos Baladrón & Javier M. Aguiar & Belén Carro & Antonio J. Sanchez-Esguevillas & Jaime Lloret, 2013. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for Microgrids Based on Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-24, March.
    14. Herui Cui & Xu Peng, 2015. "Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-10, July.
    15. Feras Alasali & Stephen Haben & Victor Becerra & William Holderbaum, 2017. "Optimal Energy Management and MPC Strategies for Electrified RTG Cranes with Energy Storage Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-18, October.
    16. Jason Grant & Moataz Eltoukhy & Shihab Asfour, 2014. "Short-Term Electrical Peak Demand Forecasting in a Large Government Building Using Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Danxiang Wei & Jianzhou Wang & Kailai Ni & Guangyu Tang, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network Combined with Fuzzy Time Series for Energy Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-38, September.
    18. Yuan, Shengxi & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Modi, Vijay, 2017. "Benefits of forecasting and energy storage in isolated grids with large wind penetration – The case of Sao Vicente," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 167-174.
    19. Nima Amjady & Farshid Keynia, 2011. "A New Neural Network Approach to Short Term Load Forecasting of Electrical Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-16, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Yusha & Man, Yi, 2023. "Energy consumption and carbon emissions forecasting for industrial processes: Status, challenges and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feras Alasali & Khaled Nusair & Lina Alhmoud & Eyad Zarour, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand and Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Chan-Uk Yeom & Keun-Chang Kwak, 2017. "Short-Term Electricity-Load Forecasting Using a TSK-Based Extreme Learning Machine with Knowledge Representation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    4. Feras Alasali & Mohammad Salameh & Ali Semrin & Khaled Nusair & Naser El-Naily & William Holderbaum, 2022. "Optimal Controllers and Configurations of 100% PV and Energy Storage Systems for a Microgrid: The Case Study of a Small Town in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    5. Seunghyoung Ryu & Jaekoo Noh & Hongseok Kim, 2016. "Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Li, Wei-Qin & Chang, Li, 2018. "A combination model with variable weight optimization for short-term electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 575-593.
    7. Dieudonné, Nzoko Tayo & Armel, Talla Konchou Franck & Hermann, Djeudjo Temene & Vidal, Aloyem Kaze Claude & René, Tchinda, 2023. "Optimization of Short-Term Forecast of Electric Power Demand in the city of Yaoundé-Cameroon by a hybrid model based on the combination of neural networks and econometric methods from a designed energ," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    8. Lianhui Li & Chunyang Mu & Shaohu Ding & Zheng Wang & Runyang Mo & Yongfeng Song, 2015. "A Robust Weighted Combination Forecasting Method Based on Forecast Model Filtering and Adaptive Variable Weight Determination," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Mohan, Neethu & Soman, K.P. & Sachin Kumar, S., 2018. "A data-driven strategy for short-term electric load forecasting using dynamic mode decomposition model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 229-244.
    10. Yi Liang & Dongxiao Niu & Minquan Ye & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2016. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Wavelet Transform and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Improved Cuckoo Search," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, October.
    11. Ragosebo Kgaugelo Modise & Khumbulani Mpofu & Olukorede Tijani Adenuga, 2021. "Energy and Carbon Emission Efficiency Prediction: Applications in Future Transport Manufacturing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Bennett, Christopher J. & Stewart, Rodney A. & Lu, Jun Wei, 2015. "Development of a three-phase battery energy storage scheduling and operation system for low voltage distribution networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 122-134.
    13. Haben, Stephen & Giasemidis, Georgios & Ziel, Florian & Arora, Siddharth, 2019. "Short term load forecasting and the effect of temperature at the low voltage level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1469-1484.
    14. Peplinski, McKenna & Dilkina, Bistra & Chen, Mo & Silva, Sam J. & Ban-Weiss, George A. & Sanders, Kelly T., 2024. "A machine learning framework to estimate residential electricity demand based on smart meter electricity, climate, building characteristics, and socioeconomic datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    15. Ricardo Vazquez & Hortensia Amaris & Monica Alonso & Gregorio Lopez & Jose Ignacio Moreno & Daniel Olmeda & Javier Coca, 2017. "Assessment of an Adaptive Load Forecasting Methodology in a Smart Grid Demonstration Project," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, February.
    16. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2018. "Optimal Deep Learning LSTM Model for Electric Load Forecasting using Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm: Comparison with Machine Learning Approaches †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.
    17. Liu, Xiufeng & Nielsen, Per Sieverts, 2016. "A hybrid ICT-solution for smart meter data analytics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1710-1722.
    18. Cheng-Ming Lee & Chia-Nan Ko, 2016. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Adaptive Annealing Learning Algorithm Based Reinforcement Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, November.
    19. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2019. "Single and Multi-Sequence Deep Learning Models for Short and Medium Term Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    20. Jaime Buitrago & Shihab Asfour, 2017. "Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:2151-:d:534714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.