IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v271y2023ics0360544223004127.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term electric net load forecasting for solar-integrated distribution systems based on Bayesian neural networks and statistical post-processing

Author

Listed:
  • Tziolis, Georgios
  • Spanias, Chrysovalantis
  • Theodoride, Maria
  • Theocharides, Spyros
  • Lopez-Lorente, Javier
  • Livera, Andreas
  • Makrides, George
  • Georghiou, George E.

Abstract

The increasing integration of variable renewable technologies at distribution feeders, mainly solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, presents new challenges to grid operators for accurately forecasting demand. This renders the transitioning from load to net load forecasting (NLF) imperative. A new methodology was proposed in this paper for direct short-term NLF at the distribution level, using a Bayesian neural network model. The proposed model was optimized with decision heuristics based on a statistical post-processing stage (i.e., clustering of daily irradiance patterns) for improved performance. Model validation was performed using historical numerical weather predictions and net load data from three distribution feeders (with PV shares ranging from 2.5% to 34.2%) in Cyprus. The optimally constructed model achieved high forecasting accuracies, exhibiting normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <5% when applied to the distribution feeders. Statistical post-processing further improved the model's forecasting accuracy, achieving nRMSE values <1.3%. Finally, the results demonstrated the suitability of the NLF methodology for distribution feeders with diverse PV penetration shares, rendering the proposed method applicable to distribution system operators for decision making and efficient planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Tziolis, Georgios & Spanias, Chrysovalantis & Theodoride, Maria & Theocharides, Spyros & Lopez-Lorente, Javier & Livera, Andreas & Makrides, George & Georghiou, George E., 2023. "Short-term electric net load forecasting for solar-integrated distribution systems based on Bayesian neural networks and statistical post-processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:271:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223004127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223004127
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yacef, R. & Benghanem, M. & Mellit, A., 2012. "Prediction of daily global solar irradiation data using Bayesian neural network: A comparative study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 146-154.
    2. Seunghyoung Ryu & Jaekoo Noh & Hongseok Kim, 2016. "Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Tao Hong, 2014. "Energy Forecasting: Past, Present, and Future," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 32, pages 43-48, Winter.
    4. Kaytez, Fazil, 2020. "A hybrid approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average and least-square support vector machine for long-term forecasting of net electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    5. Fjelkestam Frederiksen, Cornelia A. & Cai, Zuansi, 2022. "Novel machine learning approach for solar photovoltaic energy output forecast using extra-terrestrial solar irradiance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    6. Hu, Yi & Qu, Boyang & Wang, Jie & Liang, Jing & Wang, Yanli & Yu, Kunjie & Li, Yaxin & Qiao, Kangjia, 2021. "Short-term load forecasting using multimodal evolutionary algorithm and random vector functional link network based ensemble learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    7. Jeong, Dongyeon & Park, Chiwoo & Ko, Young Myoung, 2021. "Short-term electric load forecasting for buildings using logistic mixture vector autoregressive model with curve registration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PB).
    8. Spyros Theocharides & Marios Theristis & George Makrides & Marios Kynigos & Chrysovalantis Spanias & George E. Georghiou, 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Production Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-22, February.
    9. Tabar, Vahid Sohrabi & Abbasi, Vahid, 2019. "Energy management in microgrid with considering high penetration of renewable resources and surplus power generation problem," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Raza, Muhammad Qamar & Khosravi, Abbas, 2015. "A review on artificial intelligence based load demand forecasting techniques for smart grid and buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1352-1372.
    11. Alipour, Mohammadali & Aghaei, Jamshid & Norouzi, Mohammadali & Niknam, Taher & Hashemi, Sattar & Lehtonen, Matti, 2020. "A novel electrical net-load forecasting model based on deep neural networks and wavelet transform integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    12. Mayer, Martin János & Gróf, Gyula, 2021. "Extensive comparison of physical models for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    13. Theocharides, Spyros & Makrides, George & Livera, Andreas & Theristis, Marios & Kaimakis, Paris & Georghiou, George E., 2020. "Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    14. Qu, Yinpeng & Xu, Jian & Sun, Yuanzhang & Liu, Dan, 2021. "A temporal distributed hybrid deep learning model for day-ahead distributed PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    15. Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti & Khosravi, Abbas, 2014. "Uncertainty handling using neural network-based prediction intervals for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 916-925.
    16. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    17. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    18. Ashfaq Ahmad & Nadeem Javaid & Abdul Mateen & Muhammad Awais & Zahoor Ali Khan, 2019. "Short-Term Load Forecasting in Smart Grids: An Intelligent Modular Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    19. Swasti R. Khuntia & Jose L. Rueda & Mart A.M.M. Van der Meijden, 2018. "Long-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-19, November.
    20. Korkmaz, Deniz, 2021. "SolarNet: A hybrid reliable model based on convolutional neural network and variational mode decomposition for hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    21. Abu-Shikhah, Nazih & Elkarmi, Fawwaz, 2011. "Medium-term electric load forecasting using singular value decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4259-4271.
    22. Akylas Stratigakos & Athanasios Bachoumis & Vasiliki Vita & Elias Zafiropoulos, 2021. "Short-Term Net Load Forecasting with Singular Spectrum Analysis and LSTM Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-13, July.
    23. Kaur, Amanpreet & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Net load forecasting for high renewable energy penetration grids," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1073-1084.
    24. Taylor, James W. & de Menezes, Lilian M. & McSharry, Patrick E., 2006. "A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16.
    25. Jebli, Imane & Belouadha, Fatima-Zahra & Kabbaj, Mohammed Issam & Tilioua, Amine, 2021. "Prediction of solar energy guided by pearson correlation using machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    26. Hassani, Hossein & Yeganegi, Mohammad Reza, 2020. "Selecting optimal lag order in Ljung–Box test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    27. Seyedeh Narjes Fallah & Mehdi Ganjkhani & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Kwok-wing Chau, 2019. "Computational Intelligence on Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Methodological Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, January.
    28. Haben, Stephen & Arora, Siddharth & Giasemidis, Georgios & Voss, Marcus & Vukadinović Greetham, Danica, 2021. "Review of low voltage load forecasting: Methods, applications, and recommendations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Kaile & Chu, Yibo & Hu, Rong, 2023. "Energy supply-demand interaction model integrating uncertainty forecasting and peer-to-peer energy trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    2. He, Yan & Zhang, Hongli & Dong, Yingchao & Wang, Cong & Ma, Ping, 2024. "Residential net load interval prediction based on stacking ensemble learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    3. Saini, Priyesh & Parida, S.K., 2024. "A novel probabilistic gradient boosting model with multi-approach feature selection and iterative seasonal trend decomposition for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    4. Giancarlo Aquila & Lucas Barros Scianni Morais & Victor Augusto Durães de Faria & José Wanderley Marangon Lima & Luana Medeiros Marangon Lima & Anderson Rodrigo de Queiroz, 2023. "An Overview of Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electricity Systems Operational Planning: Machine Learning Methods and the Brazilian Experience," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pinheiro, Marco G. & Madeira, Sara C. & Francisco, Alexandre P., 2023. "Short-term electricity load forecasting—A systematic approach from system level to secondary substations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    2. Yin, Linfei & Cao, Xinghui & Liu, Dongduan, 2023. "Weighted fully-connected regression networks for one-day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    3. van der Meer, D.W. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1484-1512.
    4. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    5. Barja-Martinez, Sara & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Munné-Collado, Íngrid & Lloret-Gallego, Pau & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Villafafila-Robles, Roberto, 2021. "Artificial intelligence techniques for enabling Big Data services in distribution networks: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    7. Leonard Burg & Gonca Gürses-Tran & Reinhard Madlener & Antonello Monti, 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    8. Chabouni, Naima & Belarbi, Yacine & Benhassine, Wassim, 2020. "Electricity load dynamics, temperature and seasonality Nexus in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. van der Meer, D.W. & Shepero, M. & Svensson, A. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity consumption, photovoltaic power generation and net demand of an individual building using Gaussian Processes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 195-207.
    10. Zhu, Jizhong & Dong, Hanjiang & Zheng, Weiye & Li, Shenglin & Huang, Yanting & Xi, Lei, 2022. "Review and prospect of data-driven techniques for load forecasting in integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    11. Xu, Lei & Wang, Shengwei & Tang, Rui, 2019. "Probabilistic load forecasting for buildings considering weather forecasting uncertainty and uncertain peak load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 180-195.
    12. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Yixing Wang & Meiqin Liu & Zhejing Bao & Senlin Zhang, 2018. "Short-Term Load Forecasting with Multi-Source Data Using Gated Recurrent Unit Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, May.
    14. He, Yan & Zhang, Hongli & Dong, Yingchao & Wang, Cong & Ma, Ping, 2024. "Residential net load interval prediction based on stacking ensemble learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    15. Yildiz, B. & Bilbao, J.I. & Dore, J. & Sproul, A.B., 2017. "Recent advances in the analysis of residential electricity consumption and applications of smart meter data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 402-427.
    16. Yuan-Kang Wu & Cheng-Liang Huang & Quoc-Thang Phan & Yuan-Yao Li, 2022. "Completed Review of Various Solar Power Forecasting Techniques Considering Different Viewpoints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, May.
    17. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    18. Aneeque A. Mir & Mohammed Alghassab & Kafait Ullah & Zafar A. Khan & Yuehong Lu & Muhammad Imran, 2020. "A Review of Electricity Demand Forecasting in Low and Middle Income Countries: The Demand Determinants and Horizons," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-35, July.
    19. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2022. "A new approach to modeling cycles with summer and winter demand peaks as input variables for deep neural networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    20. Biyun Chen & Qi Xu & Zhuoli Zhao & Xiaoxuan Guo & Yongjun Zhang & Jingmin Chi & Canbing Li, 2023. "A Prosumer Power Prediction Method Based on Dynamic Segmented Curve Matching and Trend Feature Perception," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:271:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223004127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.