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Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Seunghyoung Ryu

    (Department of Electronic Engineering, Sogang University, 35 Baekbeom-ro, Mapo-gu, Seoul 121-742, Korea)

  • Jaekoo Noh

    (Software Center, Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), 105 Munji Road, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 305-760, Korea)

  • Hongseok Kim

    (Department of Electronic Engineering, Sogang University, 35 Baekbeom-ro, Mapo-gu, Seoul 121-742, Korea)

Abstract

In the smart grid, one of the most important research areas is load forecasting; it spans from traditional time series analyses to recent machine learning approaches and mostly focuses on forecasting aggregated electricity consumption. However, the importance of demand side energy management, including individual load forecasting, is becoming critical. In this paper, we propose deep neural network (DNN)-based load forecasting models and apply them to a demand side empirical load database. DNNs are trained in two different ways: a pre-training restricted Boltzmann machine and using the rectified linear unit without pre-training. DNN forecasting models are trained by individual customer’s electricity consumption data and regional meteorological elements. To verify the performance of DNNs, forecasting results are compared with a shallow neural network (SNN), a double seasonal Holt–Winters (DSHW) model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) are used for verification. Our results show that DNNs exhibit accurate and robust predictions compared to other forecasting models, e.g., MAPE and RRMSE are reduced by up to 17% and 22% compared to SNN and 9% and 29% compared to DSHW.

Suggested Citation

  • Seunghyoung Ryu & Jaekoo Noh & Hongseok Kim, 2016. "Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:3-:d:85901
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taylor, James W. & de Menezes, Lilian M. & McSharry, Patrick E., 2006. "A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16.
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    3. Luis Hernandez & Carlos Baladrón & Javier M. Aguiar & Belén Carro & Antonio J. Sanchez-Esguevillas & Jaime Lloret, 2013. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for Microgrids Based on Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-24, March.
    4. J W Taylor, 2003. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 799-805, August.
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