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Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models

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Cited by:

  1. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Addressing the population question in Mexico: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. António Rua & Carlos Melo Gouveia & Nuno Lourenço, 2020. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Working Papers w202005, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  3. Louie Ren & Yong Glasure, 2009. "Applicability of the Revised Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) Approach to Some Popular Normal and Non-normal Independent Time Series," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 15(4), pages 409-420, November.
  4. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Forecasting total population in Yemen using Box-Jenkins ARIMA models," MPRA Paper 92433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Nada Kulendran & Sarath Divisekera, 2007. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Australian Tourism Marketing Expenditure," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(2), pages 261-274, June.
  6. Maria M. De Mello & Natércia Fortuna, 2005. "Testing Alternative Dynamic Systems for Modelling Tourism Demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 517-537, December.
  7. Haiyan Song & Egon Smeral & Gang Li & Jason L. Chen, 2008. "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited," WIFO Working Papers 326, WIFO.
  8. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
  9. Ketenci, Natalya, 2009. "The ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Demand in Turkey: with Greece as the substitution destination," MPRA Paper 86602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Filis, George & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-127.
  11. Bi, Jian-Wu & Liu, Yang & Li, Hui, 2020. "Daily tourism volume forecasting for tourist attractions," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  12. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844.
  13. C. Petropoulos & K. Nikolopoulos & A. Patelis & V. Assimakopoulos & D. Askounis, 2006. "Tourism Technical Analysis System," Tourism Economics, , vol. 12(4), pages 543-563, December.
  14. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "A Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to the population question in Pakistan: A reliable prognosis," MPRA Paper 92434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Is Nigeria's economy progressing or backsliding? Implications from ARIMA models," MPRA Paper 91396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Song, Haiyan & Li, Gang & Witt, Stephen F. & Athanasopoulos, George, 2011. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using time-varying parameter structural time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 855-869.
  17. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
  18. Nyoni, Thabani & Mutongi, Chipo, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting carbon dioxide emissions in China using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models," MPRA Paper 93984, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting population in Bangladesh: a Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 91394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Haodong Sun & Yang Yang & Yanyan Chen & Xiaoming Liu & Jiachen Wang, 2023. "Tourism demand forecasting of multi-attractions with spatiotemporal grid: a convolutional block attention module model," Information Technology & Tourism, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 205-233, June.
  21. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F., 2006. "Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-71.
  22. Jacky S. Charles & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr, 2012. "Research Note: An Error Correction Analysis of Visitor Arrivals in the Bahamas," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 253-259, February.
  23. Apergis Nicholas, 2021. "Forecasting US overseas travelling with univariate and multivariate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 963-976, September.
  24. Luiz Moutinho & K.-H. Huarng & Tiffany Yu & C.-Y. Chen, 2008. "Modeling and forecasting tourism demand: the case of flows from Mainland China to Taiwan," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 2(3), pages 219-232, September.
  25. Elisa Jorge-González & Enrique González-Dávila & Raquel Martín-Rivero & Domingo Lorenzo-Díaz, 2020. "Univariate and multivariate forecasting of tourism demand using state-space models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 598-621, June.
  26. Michael Toma & Richard McGrath & James Payne, 2009. "Hotel tax receipts and the 'Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil': a time series intervention seasonal ARIMA model with time-varying variance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 653-656.
  27. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2016. "Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-212.
  28. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Forecasting the population of Brazil using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Jian-Wu Bi & Tian-Yu Han & Hui Li, 2022. "International tourism demand forecasting with machine learning models: The power of the number of lagged inputs," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 621-645, May.
  30. Noelia Oses & Jon Kepa Gerrikagoitia & Aurkene Alzua, 2016. "Modelling and prediction of a destination’s monthly average daily rate and occupancy rate based on hotel room prices offered online," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1380-1403, December.
  31. Lourenço, Nuno & Gouveia, Carlos Melo & Rua, António, 2021. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 445-454.
  32. Nyoni, Thabani & Muchingami, Lovemore, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) dynamics in India: what do ARIMA models tell us?," MPRA Paper 93986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Mehmet EryiÄŸit & ErdoÄŸan Kotil & Resul EryiÄŸit, 2010. "Factors Affecting International Tourism Flows to Turkey: A Gravity Model Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 585-595, September.
  34. Charles, Jacky S. & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2012. "An Error Correction Analysis of Visitor Arrivals to the Bahamas," MPRA Paper 43064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
  36. Delia Popescu & Andreea Saseanu & Daniel Bulin & Grazia Calabro, 2014. "Econometric Models in Romanian Tourism under the Impact of Sustainable Development," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(Special 8), pages 1063-1063, August.
  37. repec:kap:iaecre:v:15:y:2009:i:4:p:409-420 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Haiyan Song & Stephen F. Witt & Xinyan Zhang, 2008. "Developing a Web-Based Tourism Demand Forecasting System," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(3), pages 445-468, September.
  39. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "The population question in Zimbabwe: reliable projections from the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 96791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Chuan Zhang & Ao‐Yun Hu & Yu‐Xin Tian, 2023. "Daily tourism forecasting through a novel method based on principal component analysis, grey wolf optimizer, and extreme learning machine," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2121-2138, December.
  41. Bi, Jian-Wu & Li, Hui & Fan, Zhi-Ping, 2021. "Tourism demand forecasting with time series imaging: A deep learning model," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  42. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Jamaica," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38606, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  43. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Is South Africa the South Africa we all desire? Insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92441, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Egon Smeral & Michael Wüger, 2004. "Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism," WIFO Working Papers 225, WIFO.
  45. Li, Xin & Pan, Bing & Law, Rob & Huang, Xiankai, 2017. "Forecasting tourism demand with composite search index," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 57-66.
  46. Maria Luisa Cortón & Maling Ebrahimpour, 2014. "Research Note: Forecasting Film-Induced Tourism — The Dolphin Tale Case," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(6), pages 1349-1356, December.
  47. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "What will be Botswana's population in 2050? Evidence from the Box-Jenkins approach," MPRA Paper 93977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. Nyoni, Thabani & Mutongi, Chipo, 2019. "Prediction of total population in Togo using ARIMA models," MPRA Paper 93983, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  49. Pérez-Mesa, Juan Carlos & García-Barranco, M & Piedra-Muñoz, Laura & Galdeano-Gómez, Emilio, 2019. "Transport as a limiting factor for the growth of Spanish agri-food exports," MPRA Paper 119855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  50. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Stavros Degiannakis & Bruno Eeckels & George Filis, 2016. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2571-2585, June.
  51. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Bahamas," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38601, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  52. Adam G. Walke & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2019. "Metropolitan Hotel Sector Forecast Accuracy in El Paso," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 179-191, June.
  53. Xie, Gang & Qian, Yatong & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  54. Coshall, John T. & Charlesworth, Richard, 2011. "A management orientated approach to combination forecasting of tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 759-769.
  55. Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 83-97, March.
  56. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38581, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  57. Nyoni, Thabani & Mutongi, Chipo & Munyaradzi, Nyoni, 2019. "Population dynamics in Gambia: an ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 93985, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  58. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting total population in Russia," MPRA Paper 92456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2015. "Forecasting international city tourism demand for Paris: Accuracy of uni- and multivariate models employing monthly data," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 123-135.
  60. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Where is Eritrea going in terms of population growth? Insights from the ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  61. Houssine Choyakh, 2008. "A Model of Tourism Demand for Tunisia: Inclusion of the Tourism Investment Variable," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 819-838, December.
  62. Han Liu & Ying Liu & Yonglian Wang & Changchun Pan, 2019. "Hot topics and emerging trends in tourism forecasting research: A scientometric review," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 448-468, May.
  63. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Can Algeria be the first African country to outsmart the Malthusian population trap? Insights from the ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Shujie Shen & Gang Li & Haiyan Song, 2009. "Effect of Seasonality Treatment on the Forecasting Performance of Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 693-708, December.
  65. Nicholas Apergis & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 78-98, February.
  66. Nyoni, Thabani & Mutongi, Chipo, 2019. "Can Afghanistan be a victim of the Malthusian population trap? what does the ARIMA approach tell us?," MPRA Paper 93978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  67. Arias Martín, Pedro, 2013. "La situación del empleo en turismo rural en España/The Employment Situation in Rural Tourism in Spain," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 257(22)-257, Enero.
  68. Pérez-Mesa, Juan Carlos & García-Barranco, M. Carmen & Piedra-Muñoz, Laura & Galdeano-Gómez, Emilio, 2019. "Transport as a limiting factor for the growth of Spanish agri-food exports," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  69. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Predicting total population in India: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. KETENCI, Natalya, 2010. "Cointegration Analysis Of Tourism Demand For Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
  71. Long Wen & Chang Liu & Haiyan Song, 2019. "Forecasting tourism demand using search query data: A hybrid modelling approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 309-329, May.
  72. Nyoni, Thabani & Muchingami, Lovemore, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting Botswana's Growth Domestic Product (GDP) per capita," MPRA Paper 93987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  73. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Somalia population dynamics versus the Malthusian population trap: What does the ARIMA approach tell us?," MPRA Paper 92457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  74. Chih-Yuan Lin & Mateus Lee, 2020. "Taiwan’s opening policy to Chinese tourists and cross-strait relations: The impacts on inbound tourism into Taiwan," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 27-44, February.
  75. Stephen F. Witt & Haiyan Song & Stephen Wanhill, 2004. "Forecasting Tourism-Generated Employment: The Case of Denmark," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(2), pages 167-176, June.
  76. Jo C. Vu, 2006. "Effect of Demand Volume on Forecasting Accuracy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 12(2), pages 263-276, June.
  77. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Where is Kenya being headed to? Empirical evidence from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 91395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  78. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "What will be China's population in 2050? Evidence from the Box-Jenkins approach," MPRA Paper 92439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  79. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "An Ardl Model Of Aggregate Tourism Demand For Turkey," International Trade 0503005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
  81. Montserrat Hernández-López, 2004. "Future Tourists' Characteristics and Decisions: The Use of Genetic Algorithms as a Forecasting Method," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 245-262, September.
  82. Shaolong Suna & Dan Bi & Ju-e Guo & Shouyang Wang, 2020. "Seasonal and Trend Forecasting of Tourist Arrivals: An Adaptive Multiscale Ensemble Learning Approach," Papers 2002.08021, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
  83. Nathalie MONTARGOT & Abdessamad OUCHEN, 2018. "L’IDH, la stabilité politique et l’absence de violence- terrorisme comme facteurs explicatifs de l’attractivité touristique : le cas du bassin méditerranéen," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 47, pages 63-80.
  84. Razmi, Seyedeh Fatemeh & Moghadam, Marjan Heirani & Behname, Mehdi, 2021. "Time-varying effects of monetary policy on Iranian renewable energy generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 1161-1169.
  85. Mingming Hu & Haiyan Song, 2020. "Data source combination for tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1248-1265, November.
  86. Zharas Berdenov & Yersin Kakimzhanov & Kamshat Arykbayeva & Kalibek Assylbekov & Jan Andrzej Wendt & Kulyash D. Kaimuldinova & Aidana Beketova & Gulshat Ataeva & Tolga Kara, 2024. "Sustainable Development of the Infrastructure of the City of Astana Since the Establishment of the Capital as a Factor of Tourism Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-22, December.
  87. José Francisco Perles-Ribes & Ana Belén Ramón-Rodríguez & Martín Sevilla-Jiménez & Antonio Rubia, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Crises on Tourism Success: An Integrated Model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 417-447, April.
  88. Gang Xie & Xin Li & Yatong Qian & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism demand with KPCA-based web search indexes," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 721-743, June.
  89. Theologos Dergiades & Eleni Mavragani & Bing Pan, 2017. "Arrivals of Tourists in Cyprus: Mind the Web Search Intensity," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 107, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
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