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Modeling and forecasting population in Bangladesh: a Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

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  • NYONI, THABANI

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Bangladesh from 1960 to 2017, I model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Bangladesh annual total population is neither I (1) nor I (2) but for simplicity purposes, the researcher has assumed it is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (4, 2, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is very stable and quite reliable. The results of the study reveal that total population in Bangladesh will continue to sharply rise in the next three decades. In order to deal with the threats posed by a large population, 3 policy recommendations have been suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting population in Bangladesh: a Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 91394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91394
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    2. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
    3. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Edward L. Glaeser & Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1999. "Population and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 145-149, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population; forecasting; Bangladesh;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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