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Population dynamics in Gambia: an ARIMA approach

Author

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  • NYONI, THABANI
  • MUTONGI, CHIPO
  • MUNYARADZI, NYONI

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Gambia from 1960 to 2017, I model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Gambia annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 1) model and our diagnostic tests also indicate that the presented model is stable. The results of the study reveal that total population in Gambia will continue to gradually rise in the next three decades. In order to take advantage of the expected increase in total population in Gambia, 4 policy recommendations have been proposed for consideration by the Gambian policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani & Mutongi, Chipo & Munyaradzi, Nyoni, 2019. "Population dynamics in Gambia: an ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 93985, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93985
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 88622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    2. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    3. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
    4. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cham, Dawda, 2022. "Exploring the efficacy of e-government models through information systems management-case of The Gambia," MPRA Paper 113400, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Gambia; population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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