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Hotel tax receipts and the 'Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil': a time series intervention seasonal ARIMA model with time-varying variance

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  • Michael Toma
  • Richard McGrath
  • James Payne

Abstract

This study examines the influence of the release of a best-selling book and movie, Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil, set in Savannah, Georgia on local tourism demand. Tourism demand is proxied by revenue collected from an ad valorem hotel room tax in Savannah. The hotel tax revenue series is first modelled as a seasonal ARIMA model with three intervention variables: an index variable to capture the influence of the best-selling book and two dummy variables to represent the impact of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and hurricane Floyd. The presence of time-varying variance in the residuals is captured through an ARCH model. The results indicate that the book index had a positive and significant impact on hotel tax receipts, while the dummy variables for the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and hurricane Floyd were each negative with only the dummy variable for hurricane Floyd marginally significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Toma & Richard McGrath & James Payne, 2009. "Hotel tax receipts and the 'Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil': a time series intervention seasonal ARIMA model with time-varying variance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 653-656.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:16:y:2009:i:7:p:653-656
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850701221808
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    2. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
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    5. Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 1995. "Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: The Case of the Hawaii Hotel Room Tax," Working Papers 199505, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    6. Scott Blunk & David Clark & James McGibany, 2006. "Evaluating the long-run impacts of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on US domestic airline travel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 363-370.
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    1. Michael Earhart & E. Frank Stephenson, 2018. "Same-sex marriage legalization and wedding tourism: evidence from Charleston and Savannah," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 566-574, July.
    2. Hanyuan Zhang & Jiangping Lu, 2022. "Forecasting hotel room demand amid COVID-19," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(1), pages 200-221, February.

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