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Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism

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  • Egon Smeral

    (WIFO)

  • Michael Wüger

    (WIFO)

Abstract

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  • Egon Smeral & Michael Wüger, 2004. "Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism," WIFO Working Papers 225, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2004:i:225
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    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/25163
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Lahiri,Kajal & Moore,Geoffrey H. (ed.), 1993. "Leading Economic Indicators," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438582, October.
    4. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901.
    5. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    6. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    7. Jaume Rossello-Nadal, 2001. "Forecasting Turning Points in International Visitor Arrivals in the Balearic Islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 7(4), pages 365-380, December.
    8. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    10. L. Turner & N. Kulendran & H. Fernando, 1997. "The Use of Composite National Indicators for Tourism Forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 309-317, December.
    11. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
    12. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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