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Somalia population dynamics versus the Malthusian population trap: What does the ARIMA approach tell us?

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  • NYONI, THABANI

Abstract

Using annual time series data on total population in Somalia from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Somalia annual total population is basically I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (7, 2, 1) model as the most parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is really stable and that its residuals are I (0). The results of the study reveal that total population in Somalia will continue to rise sharply in the next three decades and in 2050 Somalia’s total population will be approximately 28 million people. In order to circumvent the chances of being a victim of the Malthusian population trap, 4 policy recommendations have been put forward for consideration by the government of Somalia.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Somalia population dynamics versus the Malthusian population trap: What does the ARIMA approach tell us?," MPRA Paper 92457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92457
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 88622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    2. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    3. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
    4. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; population; Somalia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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