IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v16y2010i3p585-595.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Factors Affecting International Tourism Flows to Turkey: A Gravity Model Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet EryiÄŸit

    (Department of Management, Abant Izzet Baysal University, 14280-Bolu, Turkey)

  • ErdoÄŸan Kotil

    (Department of Economics, Abant Izzet Baysal University, 14280-Bolu, Turkey)

  • Resul EryiÄŸit

    (Department of Physics, Abant Izzet Baysal University, 14280-Bolu, Turkey)

Abstract

A gravity-based modelling effort is undertaken to analyse the factors affecting the numbers of international tourists visiting Turkey from the top 11 originating countries for 1995–2005. It is found that an eight-factor model (GDP per capita, tourism climate index, population of the originating country, tourism price index, distance, earthquake, neighbouring country, September 11 terrorist attacks) can explain most of the data. The usual negative distance effect and the tourism climate index are found to be the most important indicators of the magnitude of tourism flows. An unexpected finding, however, is the relative insignificance of the Iraq War dummy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet EryiÄŸit & ErdoÄŸan Kotil & Resul EryiÄŸit, 2010. "Factors Affecting International Tourism Flows to Turkey: A Gravity Model Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 585-595, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:16:y:2010:i:3:p:585-595
    DOI: 10.5367/000000010792278374
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5367/000000010792278374
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5367/000000010792278374?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brainard, S Lael, 1997. "An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 520-544, September.
    2. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-153, February.
    4. M. Thea Sinclair, 1997. "Tourism and Economic Development: A Survey," Studies in Economics 9703, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    5. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
    6. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gaetano, Santeramo Fabio & Mariangela, Morelli, 2014. "Enhancing the foreign demand for agritourism," Politica Agricola Internazionale - International Agricultural Policy, Edizioni L'Informatore Agrario, vol. 2014(2).
    2. De Vita, Glauco, 2014. "The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 226-233.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Sahar Aghazadeh & George N Ike, 2021. "Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 971-990, August.
    4. Angeliki N. Menegaki & Nicholas Tsounis & George M. Agiomirgianakis, 2022. "The economic impact of climate change (CC) on the Greek economy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8145-8161, June.
    5. Visar MALAJ, 2020. "Gravity-model specification for tourism flows: the case of Albania," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12(2), pages 144-155, September.
    6. Jong, Meng-Chang & Hong, Puah & Arip, Mohammad Affendy, 2020. "Modelling Tourism Demand: An Augmented Gravity Model," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(2), pages 105-112.
    7. Wai Hong Kan Tsui & Faruk Balli & David Tat Wei Tan & Oscar Lau & Mudassar Hasan, 2018. "New Zealand business tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(4), pages 386-417, June.
    8. Hasan Gül & Selim Çaǧatay, 2015. "Impact Analysis of Demand-Driven Shocks in Turkey's Tourism Industry within the Framework of the Social Accounting Matrix," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 33-48, February.
    9. Ali Asgary & Ali Ihsan Ozdemir, 2020. "Global risks and tourism industry in Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(5), pages 1513-1536, December.
    10. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Morelli, Mariangela, 2015. "Enhancing the foreign demand for agritourism," Politica Agricola Internazionale - International Agricultural Policy, Edizioni L'Informatore Agrario, vol. 2014(2), pages 1-10, October.
    11. Recep Ulucak & Ali Gökhan Yücel & Salih Çağrı İlkay, 2020. "Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1394-1414, December.
    12. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Barbieri, Carla, 2015. "On the demand for agritourism: a cursory review of methodologies and practice," MPRA Paper 68177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Nicolau, Juan Luis, 2011. "El efecto de la participación en actividades de ocio sobre la influencia de la distancia en la elección de destinos/When the Enrollment in Recreational Activities Changes Distance Sensitivity to Desti," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 803-824, Diciembre.
    14. Donald Lien & Sucharita Ghosh & Steven Yamarik, 2014. "Does the Confucius institute impact international travel to China? A panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(17), pages 1985-1995, June.
    15. Jong, Meng-Chang, 2020. "Empirical Review on Tourism Demand and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 103919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Christopher Vierhaus, 2019. "The international tourism effect of hosting the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(7), pages 1009-1028, November.
    17. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2022. "Gravity models for tourism demand modeling: Empirical review and outlook," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1358-1409, December.
    18. Ahmed Muhamad Omer & Mehmet Yeşiltaş, 2020. "“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq”," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 301-322, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mutti, John & Grubert, Harry, 2004. "Empirical asymmetries in foreign direct investment and taxation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 337-358, March.
    2. Peter Egger, 2008. "On the role of distance for outward FDI," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(2), pages 375-389, June.
    3. Boopen Seetanah & Ramesh Durbarry & J.F. Nicolas Ragodoo, 2010. "Using the Panel Cointegration Approach to Analyse the Determinants of Tourism Demand in South Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 715-729, September.
    4. Walid Hejazi, 2007. "Reconsidering the concentration of US MNE activity: Is it global, regional or national?," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 5-27, February.
    5. Ghazalian, Pascal L. & Furtan, W. Hartley, 2008. "The effects of multinational activities on the measurement of home bias," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 401-416, September.
    6. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2007. "Estimating models of complex FDI: Are there third-country effects?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 260-281, September.
    7. Michele Fratianni & Chang Hoon Oh, 2009. "Expanding RTAs, trade flows, and the multinational enterprise," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 40(7), pages 1206-1227, September.
    8. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2004. "Distance, trade and FDI: a Hausman-Taylor SUR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 227-246.
    9. Elvira Sapienza, 2009. "The interaction between Export and FDI: Central-Eastern Europe and EU15," Quaderni DSEMS 13-2009, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    10. Valeriano Martínez-San Román & Marta Bengoa & Blanca Sánchez-Robles, 2016. "Foreign direct investment, trade integration and the home bias: evidence from the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 197-229, February.
    11. Smith, Pamela J., 2001. "How do foreign patent rights affect U.S. exports, affiliate sales, and licenses?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 411-439, December.
    12. Gast, Michael, 2005. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment of OECD Countries 1991-2001," Discussion Papers 27, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    13. Peter Egger, 2000. "The Impact of EU Accession of Selected CEECs on Bilateral Economic Relations with the EU. A Dynamic Gravity Approach," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 5(3), pages 135-143, July.
    14. Shujie Yao & Fan Zhang & Pan Wang & Dan Luo, 2017. "Location Determinants of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(6), pages 1-27, November.
    15. Ghatak, Subrata & Piperakis, Andromachi S., 2007. "The impact of Eastern European immigration to UK trade," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-3, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    16. David Law & Murat Genç & John Bryant, 2013. "Trade, Diaspora and Migration to New Zealand," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 582-606, May.
    17. Markus Brueckner & Ngo Van Long & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2020. "Non-Gravity Trade," Globalization Institute Working Papers 388, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Walid Hejazi, 2005. "Are Regional Concentrations of OECD Exports and Outward FDI Consistent with Gravity?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 423-436, December.
    19. Guglielmo Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 573-573, October.
    20. Michele FRATIANNI & Chang HOON HO, 2007. "On the Relationship Between RTA Expansion and Openness," Working Papers 288, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:16:y:2010:i:3:p:585-595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.