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Where is Eritrea going in terms of population growth? Insights from the ARIMA approach

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  • NYONI, THABANI

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Eritrea from 1960 to 2011, we model and forecast total population over the next 39 years using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Eritrea annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 2, 1) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable. The results of the study establishes that total population in Eritrea will gradually rise in the next 39 years and in 2050 Eritrea’s total population will be approximately 7.6 million people. In order to take advantage of the expected increase in total population in Eritrea, 3 policy recommendations have been proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Where is Eritrea going in terms of population growth? Insights from the ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92435
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 88622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    2. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    3. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
    4. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eritrea; forecasting; population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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