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The Effects of Economic Crises on Tourism Success: An Integrated Model

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  • José Francisco Perles-Ribes
  • Ana Belén Ramón-Rodríguez
  • Martín Sevilla-Jiménez
  • Antonio Rubia

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical model of the influence of economic crises on tourism destination performance. It discusses the temporary and permanent effects of economic crises on the global market shares of tourism destinations through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the literature. The proposed model explains the non-neutrality of economic shocks in tourism competitiveness. The model is tested on Spain's tourism industry, which is among the leaders of the global tourism sector, for the period 1970–2013 using non-linear econometric techniques. The empirical analysis confirms that the proposed model is appropriate for explaining the changes in the market positions caused by the economic crises.

Suggested Citation

  • José Francisco Perles-Ribes & Ana Belén Ramón-Rodríguez & Martín Sevilla-Jiménez & Antonio Rubia, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Crises on Tourism Success: An Integrated Model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 417-447, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:2:p:417-447
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2014.0428
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    2. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 1979. "Tourism and the Business Cycle. Econometric Models for the Purpose of Analysis and Forecasting of Short-Term Changes in the Demand for Tourism," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 2878.
    4. Mita Bhattacharya & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1485-1490.
    5. Terasvirta, Timo & Tjostheim, Dag & Granger, Clive W. J., 2010. "Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199587155.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gizem Uzuner & Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(5), pages 1561-1579, October.
    2. Herman Sahni & Christian Nsiah & Bichaka Fayissa, 2021. "The African economic growth experience and tourism receipts: A threshold analysis and quantile regression approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 915-932, August.

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