IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v18y2012i1p253-259.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research Note: An Error Correction Analysis of Visitor Arrivals in the Bahamas

Author

Listed:
  • Jacky S. Charles
  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr

Abstract

Tourism is a major activity for many countries in the Caribbean. Accurate forecasts of visitor arrivals can assist planning efforts in the public and private sectors. This study uses error correction models (ECMs) to analyse visitor arrivals in the Bahamas. Findings suggest that income and habit persistence/word-of-mouth advertising are primary determinants of tourism to the Bahamas, while the cost of travel is generally insignificant. To assess the model reliability further, ECM forecasts are compared to random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. The ECMs provide fairly reliable forecasts, but are less accurate than the benchmarks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacky S. Charles & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr, 2012. "Research Note: An Error Correction Analysis of Visitor Arrivals in the Bahamas," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 253-259, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:18:y:2012:i:1:p:253-259
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2012.0101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5367/te.2012.0101
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5367/te.2012.0101?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcycruz de Leon & Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Brian W Kelly, 2009. "Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Borderplex International Bridge Traffic," Articles, International Journal of Transport Economics, vol. 36(2).
    2. Robertico Croes & Manuel Antonio Rivera, 2010. "Testing the Empirical Link between Tourism and Competitiveness: Evidence from Puerto Rico," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 217-234, March.
    3. Haiyan Song & Gang Li & Stephen F. Witt & Baogang Fei, 2010. "Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: How Should Demand Be Measured?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 63-81, March.
    4. Kulendran, N. & King, Maxwell L., 1997. "Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 319-327, September.
    5. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 2000. "An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 611-624.
    6. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles, Jacky S. & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2012. "An Error Correction Analysis of Visitor Arrivals to the Bahamas," MPRA Paper 43064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    3. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
    4. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2016. "Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-212.
    5. Haiyan Song & Egon Smeral & Gang Li & Jason L. Chen, 2008. "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited," WIFO Working Papers 326, WIFO.
    6. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2015. "Forecasting international city tourism demand for Paris: Accuracy of uni- and multivariate models employing monthly data," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 123-135.
    7. Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 83-97, March.
    8. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844.
    9. Chien-Ming Wang & Su-Lan Pan & Alastair M. Morrison & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2022. "The dynamic linkages among outbound tourism, economic growth, and international trade: empirical evidence from China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-18, November.
    10. Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
    11. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "An Ardl Model Of Aggregate Tourism Demand For Turkey," International Trade 0503005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    13. Nada Kulendran & Sarath Divisekera, 2007. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Australian Tourism Marketing Expenditure," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(2), pages 261-274, June.
    14. Haiyan Song & Stephen F. Witt & Xinyan Zhang, 2008. "Developing a Web-Based Tourism Demand Forecasting System," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(3), pages 445-468, September.
    15. Han Liu & Ying Liu & Yonglian Wang & Changchun Pan, 2019. "Hot topics and emerging trends in tourism forecasting research: A scientometric review," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 448-468, May.
    16. Bonham, Carl & Gangnes, Byron & Zhou, Ting, 2009. "Modeling tourism: A fully identified VECM approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 531-549, July.
    17. Apergis Nicholas, 2021. "Forecasting US overseas travelling with univariate and multivariate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 963-976, September.
    18. repec:wyi:journl:002100 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Nicholas Apergis & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 78-98, February.
    20. Song, Haiyan & Li, Gang & Witt, Stephen F. & Athanasopoulos, George, 2011. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using time-varying parameter structural time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 855-869.
    21. Shujie Shen & Gang Li & Haiyan Song, 2009. "Effect of Seasonality Treatment on the Forecasting Performance of Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 693-708, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:18:y:2012:i:1:p:253-259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.