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Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis

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  • Willem A. Naudé
  • Andrea Saayman

Abstract

Africa's tourism potential is acknowledged to be significant but underdeveloped. This paper uses both cross-section data and panel data for the period 1996–2000 to identify the determinants of tourism arrivals in 43 African countries, taking into account tourists' country of origin. The results strongly suggest that political stability, tourism infrastructure, marketing and information, and the level of development at the destination are key determinants of travel to Africa. Typical ‘developed country determinants’ of tourism demand, such as the level of income in the origin country, the relative prices and the cost of travel, are not so significant in explaining the demand for Africa as a tourism destination. It is therefore recommended that attention should be given to improving the overall stability of the continent and the availability and quantity of tourism infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:11:y:2005:i:3:p:365-391
    DOI: 10.5367/000000005774352962
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Africa; tourism; tourism arrivals; panel data regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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