IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/16479.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Naudé, Wim
  • Saayman, Andrea

Abstract

Africa’s tourism potential is acknowledged to be significant but underdeveloped. This paper uses both cross-section data and panel data for the period 1996–2000 to identify the determinants of tourism arrivals in 43 African countries, taking into account tourists’ country of origin. The results strongly suggest that political stability, tourism infrastructure, marketing and information, and the level of development at the destination are key determinants of travel to Africa. Typical ‘developed country determinants’ of tourism demand, such as the level of income in the origin country, the relative prices and the cost of travel, are not so significant in explaining the demand for Africa as a tourism destination. It is therefore recommended that attention should be given to improving the overall stability of the continent and the availability and quantity of tourism infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Naudé, Wim & Saayman, Andrea, 2005. "Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis," MPRA Paper 16479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16479
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16479/1/MPRA_paper_16479.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. W.A. NaudÈ & W.F. Krugell, 2003. "An Inquiry into Cities and their Role in Subnational Economic Growth in South Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 12(4), pages 476-499, December.
    2. Melville Saayman & Andrea Saayman & Juliet Rhodes, 2001. "Domestic tourist spending and economic development: The case of the North West Province," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 443-455.
    3. Diamond, J, 1976. "Tourism and Development Policy: A Quantitative Appraisal," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 36-50, May.
    4. Robert Cleverdon, 2002. "Tourism development in the SADC region: The opportunities and challenges," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 7-28.
    5. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    6. Lindsay W. Turner & N. Kulendran & H. Fernando, 1997. "Univariate Modelling Using Periodic and Non-Periodic Analysis: Inbound Tourism to Japan, Australia and New Zealand Compared," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(1), pages 39-56, March.
    7. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    8. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 2000. "An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 611-624.
    9. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 01A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    10. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    11. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    12. Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
    13. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2000. "The Economic Burden of Malaria," CID Working Papers 52A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    14. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2000. "The Economic Burden of Malaria," CID Working Papers 52, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    15. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Aggregating governance indicators," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2195, The World Bank.
    16. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
    17. Iain Christie & Doreen Elizabeth Cromption, 2001. "Tourism in Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 9804, The World Bank Group.
    18. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(3), pages 335-376, October.
    19. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, April.
    20. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    21. Lim, Christine, 2004. "The major determinants of Korean outbound travel to Australia," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 477-485.
    22. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    23. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    24. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    25. Jonas Nordström, 2005. "Dynamic and stochastic structures in tourism demand modeling," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 379-392, September.
    26. Andrew Warner, 2002. "Institutions, Geography, Regions, Countries and the Mobility Bias," CID Working Papers 91, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    27. Gallup, John L. & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Mellinger, Andrew, "undated". "Geography and Economic Development," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics geodata, Boston College Department of Economics.
    28. F. J. Ledesma-Rodríguez & M. Navarro-Ibánez & J. V. Pérez-Rodríguez, "undated". "Panel data and tourism demand. The case of Tenerife," Working Papers 99-17, FEDEA.
    29. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Modelling International Travel Demand from Singapore to Australia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-214, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    30. Badi H. Baltagi, 2021. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 6, number 978-3-030-53953-5, October.
    31. Gallup, John & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) Papers 294434, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government.
    32. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    33. Pollak, Robert A, 1970. "Habit Formation and Dynamic Demand Functions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 745-763, Part I Ju.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. W. A. Naudé, 2004. "The effects of policy, institutions and geography on economic growth in Africa: an econometric study based on cross-section and panel data," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 821-849.
    2. Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Yedgenov, Bauyrzhan, 2020. "Identifying and disentangling the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. W. A. Naude & W. F. Krugell, 2007. "Investigating geography and institutions as determinants of foreign direct investment in Africa using panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 1223-1233.
    4. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    5. T. M. Tonmoy Islam & Jenny Minier & James P. Ziliak, 2015. "On Persistent Poverty in a Rich Country," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(3), pages 653-678, January.
    6. Horst Feldmann, 2009. "The quality of the legal system and labor market performance around the world," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 39-65, August.
    7. Henry Overman & Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Economic Geography of Trade, Production, and Income: A Survey of Empirics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0508, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Roland Hodler & David S. Knight, 2012. "Ethnic Fractionalisation and Aid Effectiveness," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 21(1), pages 65-93, January.
    9. Stimpfle, Alexander & Stadelmann, David, 2015. "The Impact of Fundamental Development Factors on Different Income Groups: International Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113128, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Messono, Omang & Asongu, Simplice, 2021. "Historical Prevalence of Infectious Diseases and Entrepreneurship: the Role of Institutions in 125 Countries," MPRA Paper 111842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004. "On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages 191-216, June.
    12. P. Dorian Owen, 2017. "Evaluating Ingenious Instruments for Fundamental Determinants of Long-Run Economic Growth and Development," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-33, September.
    13. Matthew Cole & Eric Neumayer, 2006. "The impact of poor health on total factor productivity," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(6), pages 918-938.
    14. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    15. Brülhart, Marius & Sbergami, Federica, 2009. "Agglomeration and growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 48-63, January.
    16. Lubna Hasan, 2007. "Myths and Realities of Long-run Development: A Look at Deeper Determinants," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 19-44.
    17. Rougier, Eric, 2016. "“Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-171.
    18. You, Jong-Sung & Khagram, Sanjeev, 2004. "Inequality and Corruption," Working Paper Series rwp04-001, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    19. Artelaris, Panagiotis & Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George, 2006. "Theoretical and Methodological Study on Dynamic Growth Regions and Factors Explaining their Growth Performance," Papers DYNREG02, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Ignacio Amate-Fortes & Almudena Guarnido-Rueda & Agustin Molina-Morales, 2017. "Economic and Social Determinants of Human Development: A New Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 561-577, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Africa; tourism; tourism arrivals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.