IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v169y2018icp403-411.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach

Author

Listed:
  • Khakzad, Nima
  • Van Gelder, Pieter

Abstract

In the context of natural-technological (natech) accidents, flood-induced damage of industrial plants have received relatively less attention mainly due to the scarcity of such accidents compared to those triggered by earthquakes, high winds, and lightnings. The large amount of oil and chemicals spillage due to floods triggered by the Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Harvey in 2017 in the U.S. demonstrated the potential of floods in causing catastrophic natechs. In the present study, we have developed a methodology based on physical reliability models and Bayesian network so as to assess the fragility (probability of failure) of industrial plants to floods. The application of the methodology has been demonstrated for petroleum storage tanks where flotation, shell buckling, and sliding are considered as the prevailing failure modes. Due to scarcity of empirical data and high-resolution field observations prevailing in natechs, the developed methodology can effectively be applied to a wide variety of natechs in industrial plants as long as limit state equations of respective failure modes can reasonably be developed.

Suggested Citation

  • Khakzad, Nima & Van Gelder, Pieter, 2018. "Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 403-411.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:169:y:2018:i:c:p:403-411
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832017305045
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Bonvicini, Sarah & Cozzani, Valerio, 2016. "Quantitative assessment of risk due to major accidents triggered by lightning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 60-72.
    2. Elisabeth Krausmann & Elisabetta Renni & Michela Campedel & Valerio Cozzani, 2011. "Industrial accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning: lessons learned from a database analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(1), pages 285-300, October.
    3. Yan, Zhenyu & Haimes, Yacov Y., 2010. "Cross-classified hierarchical Bayesian models for risk-based analysis of complex systems under sparse data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 764-776.
    4. Ana Cruz & Elisabeth Krausmann & Giovanni Franchello, 2011. "Analysis of tsunami impact scenarios at an oil refinery," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 141-162, July.
    5. Sättele, Martina & Bründl, Michael & Straub, Daniel, 2015. "Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards: Concept and application to debris flow warning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 192-202.
    6. Nima Khakzad & Sina Khakzad & Faisal Khan, 2014. "Probabilistic risk assessment of major accidents: application to offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1759-1771, December.
    7. Ana Cruz & Norio Okada, 2008. "Consideration of natural hazards in the design and risk management of industrial facilities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(2), pages 213-227, February.
    8. Hauptmanns, Ulrich, 2010. "A decision-making framework for protecting process plants from flooding based on fault tree analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(9), pages 970-980.
    9. Hong, Liu & Ouyang, Min & Peeta, Srinivas & He, Xiaozheng & Yan, Yongze, 2015. "Vulnerability assessment and mitigation for the Chinese railway system under floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 58-68.
    10. Maria Milazzo & Giuseppa Ancione & Anna Basco & David Lister & Ernesto Salzano & Giuseppe Maschio, 2013. "Potential loading damage to industrial storage tanks due to volcanic ash fallout," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 939-953, March.
    11. Jonkman, S.N. & Lentz, A. & Vrijling, J.K., 2010. "A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1123-1133.
    12. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio & Krausmann, Elisabeth & Borghetti, Alberto & Alberto Nucci, Carlo, 2013. "A model for process equipment damage probability assessment due to lightning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 91-99.
    13. Antonioni, Giacomo & Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Gheorghiu, Diana & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of risk due to NaTech scenarios caused by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 334-345.
    14. Marzo, E. & Busini, V. & Rota, R., 2015. "Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing the vulnerability of a territory in natural–technological risk estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 92-97.
    15. Landucci, Gabriele & Antonioni, Giacomo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2012. "Release of hazardous substances in flood events: Damage model for atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 200-216.
    16. Salzano, Ernesto & Garcia Agreda, Anita & Di Carluccio, Antonio & Fabbrocino, Giovanni, 2009. "Risk assessment and early warning systems for industrial facilities in seismic zones," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(10), pages 1577-1584.
    17. Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Release of hazardous substances in flood events: Damage model for horizontal cylindrical vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-145.
    18. Elisabeth Krausmann & Fesil Mushtaq, 2008. "A qualitative Natech damage scale for the impact of floods on selected industrial facilities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(2), pages 179-197, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Yunfeng & Chen, Guohua & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric storage tanks to floods based on logistic regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Abrishami, Shokoufeh & Khakzad, Nima & Hosseini, Seyed Mahmoud, 2020. "A data-based comparison of BN-HRA models in assessing human error probability: An offshore evacuation case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. Rossi, Lorenzo & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Landucci, Gabriele, 2022. "Vulnerability assessment of process pipelines affected by flood events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Tao Zeng & Guohua Chen & Yunfeng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Yixin Zhao & Xia Liu, 2020. "A Systematic Literature Review on Safety Research Related to Chemical Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-27, July.
    5. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Caratozzolo, Vincenzo & Misuri, Alessio & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A generalized equipment vulnerability model for the quantitative risk assessment of horizontal vessels involved in Natech scenarios triggered by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    7. Di Maio, Francesco & Marchetti, Stefano & Zio, Enrico, 2023. "Robust multi-objective optimization of safety barriers performance parameters for NaTech scenarios risk assessment and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    8. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    9. Mei Cai & Stephen M. Marson, 2021. "A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2155-2174, July.
    10. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    11. Bernier, Carl & Padgett, Jamie E., 2019. "Fragility and risk assessment of aboveground storage tanks subjected to concurrent surge, wave, and wind loads," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    12. Zhou, Xingyuan & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. & Liang, Yongtu & Zhang, Haoran, 2020. "An integrated methodology for the supply reliability analysis of multi-product pipeline systems under pumps failure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    13. Ye Zheng & Yazhou Xie & Xuejiao Long, 2021. "A comprehensive review of Bayesian statistics in natural hazards engineering," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 63-91, August.
    14. Zuluaga Mayorga, Santiago & Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio & Ramírez Olivar, Oscar J. & Muñoz Giraldo, Felipe, 2019. "Development of parametric fragility curves for storage tanks: A Natech approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1-10.
    15. Nishino, Tomoaki & Miyashita, Takuya & Mori, Nobuhito, 2024. "Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    16. Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua & Yang, Yunfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "An event-driven probabilistic methodology for modeling the spatial-temporal evolution of natural hazard-induced domino chain in chemical industrial parks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    17. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Zhang, Jun & Liu, Dedi & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Zhang, Xiaojing, 2020. "Considering different streamflow forecast horizons in the quantitative flood risk analysis for a multi-reservoir system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    18. Bernier, Carl & Gidaris, Ioannis & Balomenos, Georgios P. & Padgett, Jamie E., 2019. "Assessing the accessibility of petrochemical facilities during storm surge events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 155-167.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Yang, Yunfeng & Chen, Guohua & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric storage tanks to floods based on logistic regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Antonioni, Giacomo & Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Gheorghiu, Diana & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of risk due to NaTech scenarios caused by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 334-345.
    5. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Rossi, Lorenzo & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Landucci, Gabriele, 2022. "Vulnerability assessment of process pipelines affected by flood events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    7. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    8. Necci, Amos & Argenti, Francesca & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 30-46.
    9. Nishino, Tomoaki & Miyashita, Takuya & Mori, Nobuhito, 2024. "Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    10. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Bonvicini, Sarah & Cozzani, Valerio, 2016. "Quantitative assessment of risk due to major accidents triggered by lightning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 60-72.
    11. Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Release of hazardous substances in flood events: Damage model for horizontal cylindrical vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-145.
    12. Caratozzolo, Vincenzo & Misuri, Alessio & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A generalized equipment vulnerability model for the quantitative risk assessment of horizontal vessels involved in Natech scenarios triggered by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    13. Bernier, Carl & Padgett, Jamie E., 2019. "Fragility and risk assessment of aboveground storage tanks subjected to concurrent surge, wave, and wind loads," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Ana Cruz & Elisabeth Krausmann, 2013. "Vulnerability of the oil and gas sector to climate change and extreme weather events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(1), pages 41-53, November.
    15. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio & Krausmann, Elisabeth & Borghetti, Alberto & Alberto Nucci, Carlo, 2013. "A model for process equipment damage probability assessment due to lightning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 91-99.
    16. Zuluaga Mayorga, Santiago & Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio & Ramírez Olivar, Oscar J. & Muñoz Giraldo, Felipe, 2019. "Development of parametric fragility curves for storage tanks: A Natech approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1-10.
    17. Landucci, Gabriele & Antonioni, Giacomo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2012. "Release of hazardous substances in flood events: Damage model for atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 200-216.
    18. Ricci, Federica & Misuri, Alessio & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Cozzani, Valerio & Demichela, Micaela, 2024. "Vulnerability Assessment of Industrial Sites to Interface Fires and Wildfires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    19. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio & Krausmann, Elisabeth & Borghetti, Alberto & Nucci, Carlo Alberto, 2014. "Assessment of lightning impact frequency for process equipment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 95-105.
    20. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:169:y:2018:i:c:p:403-411. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.