IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v215y2021ics0951832021004269.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Chao
  • Yang, Ming
  • Reniers, Genserik

Abstract

A disruption to hazardous (flammable, explosive, and toxic) material (HAZMAT) storage plants may trigger escalation effects, resulting in more severe storage performance losses and making the performance restoration more difficult. The disruption, such as an intentional attack, may be difficult to predict and prevent, thus developing a resilient HAZMAT storage plant may be a practical and effective way to deal with these disruptions. This study develops a dynamic stochastic methodology to quantify the resilience of HAZMAT storage plants. In this methodology, resilience evolution scenarios are modeled as a dynamic process that consists of four stages: disruption, escalation, adaption, and restoration stages. The resistant capability in the disruption stage, mitigation capability in the escalation stage, adaption capability in the adaption stage, and restoration capability in the restoration stage are quantified to obtain the HAZMAT storage resilience. The uncertainties in the disruption stage and the mitigation stage are considered, and the dynamic Monte Carlo method is used to simulate possible resilience scenarios and thus quantify the storage resilience. A case study is used to illustrate the developed methodology, and a discussion based on the case study is provided to find out the critical parameters and resilience measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:215:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021004269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107909
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832021004269
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107909?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansson, Jonas & Hassel, Henrik & Zio, Enrico, 2013. "Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 27-38.
    2. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Bonvicini, Sarah & Cozzani, Valerio, 2016. "Quantitative assessment of risk due to major accidents triggered by lightning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 60-72.
    3. Igor Linkov & Benjamin D. Trump & Jeffrey Keisler, 2018. "Risk and resilience must be independently managed," Nature, Nature, vol. 555(7694), pages 30-30, March.
    4. Yarveisy, Rioshar & Gao, Chuan & Khan, Faisal, 2020. "A simple yet robust resilience assessment metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    5. Tao Zeng & Guohua Chen & Yunfeng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Yixin Zhao & Xia Liu, 2020. "A Systematic Literature Review on Safety Research Related to Chemical Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-27, July.
    6. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2016. "Application of event sequence diagram to evaluate emergency response actions during fire-induced domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 202-209.
    7. Lindbom, Hanna & Tehler, Henrik & Eriksson, Kerstin & Aven, Terje, 2015. "The capability concept – On how to define and describe capability in relation to risk, vulnerability and resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 45-54.
    8. Khakzad, Nima & Van Gelder, Pieter, 2018. "Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 403-411.
    9. Landucci, Gabriele & Argenti, Francesca & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in the prevention of domino scenarios triggered by fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 30-43.
    10. Chen, Chao & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2019. "Integrating safety and security resources to protect chemical industrial parks from man-made domino effects: A dynamic graph approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2016. "A review of definitions and measures of system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61.
    12. Aven, Terje, 2017. "How some types of risk assessments can support resilience analysis and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 536-543.
    13. Laobing Zhang & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers & Nima Khakzad & Jianfeng Zhou, 2018. "DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent‐Based Modeling and Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1585-1600, August.
    14. Hans Pasman & Kedar Kottawar & Prerna Jain, 2020. "Resilience of Process Plant: What, Why, and How Resilience Can Improve Safety and Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-21, July.
    15. Hausken, Kjell, 2021. "The precautionary principle as multi-period games where players have different thresholds for acceptable uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    16. Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
    17. Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio & Salzano, Ernesto, 2015. "Vulnerability of industrial facilities to attacks with improvised explosive devices aimed at triggering domino scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 53-62.
    18. Antonioni, Giacomo & Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Gheorghiu, Diana & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of risk due to NaTech scenarios caused by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 334-345.
    19. Kjell Hausken & Fei He, 2016. "On the Effectiveness of Security Countermeasures for Critical Infrastructures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 711-726, April.
    20. Khakzad, Nima & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2017. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to performance assessment of fire protection systems during domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 232-247.
    21. Provan, David J. & Woods, David D. & Dekker, Sidney W.A. & Rae, Andrew J., 2020. "Safety II professionals: How resilience engineering can transform safety practice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    22. IAIANI, Matteo & TUGNOLI, Alessandro & BONVICINI, Sarah & COZZANI, Valerio, 2021. "Analysis of Cybersecurity-related Incidents in the Process Industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    23. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2019. "Low-capacity utilization of process plants: A cost-robust approach to tackle man-made domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    24. Misuri, Alessio & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Quddus, Noor & Cozzani, Valerio, 2019. "Lessons learnt from the impact of hurricane Harvey on the chemical and process industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    25. Chen, Chao & Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Dynamic vulnerability assessment of process plants with respect to vapor cloud explosions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    26. Laobing Zhang & Genserik Reniers, 2016. "A Game‐Theoretical Model to Improve Process Plant Protection from Terrorist Attacks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(12), pages 2285-2297, December.
    27. Kjell Hausken & Vicki M. Bier & Jun Zhuang, 2009. "Defending Against Terrorism, Natural Disaster, and All Hazards," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Vicki M. M. Bier & M. Naceur Azaiez (ed.), Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats, chapter 4, pages 65-97, Springer.
    28. Nima Khakzad & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers, 2017. "Application of Graph Theory to Cost‐Effective Fire Protection of Chemical Plants During Domino Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(9), pages 1652-1667, September.
    29. Reniers, G.L.L. & Sörensen, K. & Khan, F. & Amyotte, P., 2014. "Resilience of chemical industrial areas through attenuation-based security," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 94-101.
    30. Zinetullina, Altyngul & Yang, Ming & Khakzad, Nima & Golman, Boris & Li, Xinhong, 2021. "Quantitative resilience assessment of chemical process systems using functional resonance analysis method and Dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Hao & Yang, Ming & Wang, Haiqing, 2024. "An integrated approach to quantitative resilience assessment in process systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Kamali, Behnaz & Ziaei, Ali Naghi & Beheshti, Aliasghar & Farmani, Raziyeh, 2022. "An open-source toolbox for investigating functional resilience in sewer networks based on global resilience analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    3. Tan, Xinxin & Xiao, Shenbin & Yang, Yu & Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik & Chen, Chao, 2024. "An agent-based resilience model of oil tank farms exposed to earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    4. Wang, Jinpei & Bai, Xuejie & Liu, Yankui, 2023. "Globalized robust bilevel optimization model for hazmat transport network design considering reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    5. Sun, Hao & Yang, Ming & Wang, Haiqing, 2022. "A virtual experiment for measuring system resilience: A case of chemical process systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    6. Liu, Yang & Ma, Xiaoxue & Qiao, Weiliang & Ma, Laihao & Han, Bing, 2024. "A novel methodology to model disruption propagation for resilient maritime transportation systems–a case study of the Arctic maritime transportation system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    7. Sun, Hao & Wang, Haiqing & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "A STAMP-based approach to quantitative resilience assessment of chemical process systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    8. Ramadhani, Adhitya & Khan, Faisal & Colbourne, Bruce & Ahmed, Salim & Taleb-Berrouane, Mohammed, 2022. "Resilience assessment of offshore structures subjected to ice load considering complex dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    9. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2022. "A novel vulnerability model considering synergistic effect of fire and overpressure in chemical processing facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    2. Chen, Chao & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "A dynamic multi-agent approach for modeling the evolution of multi-hazard accident scenarios in chemical plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    3. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part I—Failure Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    6. Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "Optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects: Methodologies based on dynamic influence diagram and mathematical programming," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Guo, Xiaoxue & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    8. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2022. "A novel vulnerability model considering synergistic effect of fire and overpressure in chemical processing facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    9. Yang, Yunfeng & Chen, Guohua & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric storage tanks to floods based on logistic regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    10. Tan, Xinxin & Xiao, Shenbin & Yang, Yu & Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik & Chen, Chao, 2024. "An agent-based resilience model of oil tank farms exposed to earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    11. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A methodology based on Dijkstra's algorithm and mathematical programming for optimal evacuation in process plants in the event of major tank fires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    12. Caratozzolo, Vincenzo & Misuri, Alessio & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A generalized equipment vulnerability model for the quantitative risk assessment of horizontal vessels involved in Natech scenarios triggered by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    13. Mottahedi, Adel & Sereshki, Farhang & Ataei, Mohammad & Qarahasanlou, Ali Nouri & Barabadi, Abbas, 2021. "Resilience estimation of critical infrastructure systems: Application of expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    14. Tao Zeng & Guohua Chen & Yunfeng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Yixin Zhao & Xia Liu, 2020. "A Systematic Literature Review on Safety Research Related to Chemical Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-27, July.
    15. Chen, Chao & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2019. "Integrating safety and security resources to protect chemical industrial parks from man-made domino effects: A dynamic graph approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    16. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A goal programming approach to multi-objective optimization of firefighting strategies in the event of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    17. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2019. "Low-capacity utilization of process plants: A cost-robust approach to tackle man-made domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    18. Matteini, Anita & Argenti, Francesca & Salzano, Ernesto & Cozzani, Valerio, 2019. "A comparative analysis of security risk assessment methodologies for the chemical industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    19. Ricci, Federica & Misuri, Alessio & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Cozzani, Valerio & Demichela, Micaela, 2024. "Vulnerability Assessment of Industrial Sites to Interface Fires and Wildfires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    20. Weiliang Qiao & Enze Huang & Hongtongyang Guo & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma, 2022. "Barriers Involved in the Safety Management Systems: A Systematic Review of Literature," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-35, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:215:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021004269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.