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Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric storage tanks to floods based on logistic regression

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  • Yang, Yunfeng
  • Chen, Guohua
  • Reniers, Genserik

Abstract

Atmospheric storage tanks damaged by floods may lead to severe NaTech accident scenarios, and the vulnerability assessment of process equipment suffered by natural events is a crucial point in NaTech risk analysis. In the present study, limit state equations for failure modes of displacement and buckling are introduced based on load-resistance relationships. The parameterized fragility models that can be used in a wide variety of atmospheric unanchored storage tanks and floods have been developed based on logistic regression (LR), and moreover, the models are assessed and validated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and available accident data in literature. The effects of filling level and density of storaged liquid, the diameter and height of tank, and the inundation height and velocity of flood on the vulnerability of different failure modes are analyzed using fragility curves. Furthermore, fragility magic cubes are first proposed to obtain critical disaster conditions and critical filling levels in different cases. Finally, corresponding quantitative mitigation measures in different stages such as site selection, design, and operation are proposed based on the results of vulnerability assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Yunfeng & Chen, Guohua & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric storage tanks to floods based on logistic regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:196:y:2020:i:c:s0951832018313826
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106721
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    11. Bernier, Carl & Padgett, Jamie E., 2019. "Fragility and risk assessment of aboveground storage tanks subjected to concurrent surge, wave, and wind loads," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    12. Lanzano, Giovanni & Salzano, Ernesto & de Magistris, Filippo Santucci & Fabbrocino, Giovanni, 2013. "Seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 73-80.
    13. Chen, Chao & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2019. "Integrating safety and security resources to protect chemical industrial parks from man-made domino effects: A dynamic graph approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio & Krausmann, Elisabeth & Borghetti, Alberto & Alberto Nucci, Carlo, 2013. "A model for process equipment damage probability assessment due to lightning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 91-99.
    15. Khakzad, Nima, 2019. "Modeling wildfire spread in wildland-industrial interfaces using dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 165-176.
    16. Naderpour, Mohsen & Rizeei, Hossein Mojaddadi & Khakzad, Nima & Pradhan, Biswajeet, 2019. "Forest fire induced Natech risk assessment: A survey of geospatial technologies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Release of hazardous substances in flood events: Damage model for horizontal cylindrical vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-145.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Tao Zeng & Guohua Chen & Yunfeng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Yixin Zhao & Xia Liu, 2020. "A Systematic Literature Review on Safety Research Related to Chemical Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-27, July.
    4. Caratozzolo, Vincenzo & Misuri, Alessio & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A generalized equipment vulnerability model for the quantitative risk assessment of horizontal vessels involved in Natech scenarios triggered by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
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    6. Chen, Chao & Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Dynamic vulnerability assessment of process plants with respect to vapor cloud explosions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    7. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part I—Failure Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, May.
    8. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. You-Shyang Chen & Ying-Hsun Hung & Yu-Sheng Lin, 2023. "A Study to Identify Long-Term Care Insurance Using Advanced Intelligent RST Hybrid Models with Two-Stage Performance Evaluation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-34, July.
    10. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    11. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    12. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    13. Marroni, Giulia & Casini, Leonardo & Bartolucci, Andrea & Kuipers, Sanneke & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Landucci, Gabriele, 2024. "Development of fragility models for process equipment affected by physical security attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    14. Yuan Chen & Zhijie Zhou & Lihao Yang & Guanyu Hu & Xiaoxia Han & Shuaiwen Tang, 2022. "A novel structural safety assessment method of large liquid tank based on the belief rule base and finite element method," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 236(3), pages 458-476, June.
    15. Li, Xiaofeng & Chen, Guohua & Amyotte, Paul & Khan, Faisal & Alauddin, Mohammad, 2023. "Vulnerability assessment of storage tanks exposed to simultaneous fire and explosion hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    16. Khakzad, Nima & Cozzani, Valerio, 2020. "Special issue: Quantitative assessment and risk management of Natech accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    17. Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua & Yang, Yunfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "An event-driven probabilistic methodology for modeling the spatial-temporal evolution of natural hazard-induced domino chain in chemical industrial parks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).

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