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A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters

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  • Jonkman, S.N.
  • Lentz, A.
  • Vrijling, J.K.

Abstract

In assessing the safety of engineering systems in the context of quantitative risk analysis one of the most important consequence types concerns the loss of life due to accidents and disasters. In this paper, a general approach for loss of life estimation is proposed which includes three elements: (1) the assessment of physical effects associated with the event; (2) determination of the number of exposed persons (taking into account warning and evacuation); and (3) determination of mortality amongst the population exposed. The typical characteristics of and modelling approaches for these three elements are discussed. This paper focuses on “small probability–large consequences†events within the engineering domain. It is demonstrated how the proposed approach can be applied to various case studies, such as tunnel fires, earthquakes and flood events.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonkman, S.N. & Lentz, A. & Vrijling, J.K., 2010. "A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1123-1133.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:11:p:1123-1133
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.06.019
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    2. S. Jonkman & J. Vrijling & A. Vrouwenvelder, 2008. "Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 353-389, September.
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