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Quantitative assessment of risk due to NaTech scenarios caused by floods

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  • Antonioni, Giacomo
  • Landucci, Gabriele
  • Necci, Amos
  • Gheorghiu, Diana
  • Cozzani, Valerio

Abstract

Floods may cause severe damages to chemical and process facilities, triggering major accidents (fires, explosions, and toxic release). Such cascading events are termed as NaTech scenarios. In the present study, a specific methodology for the implementation of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of NaTech scenarios triggered by floods was further developed and applied to the assessment of different flood events and equipment categories. Specific vulnerability models allowed estimating the failure probability of both atmospheric and pressurized equipment, and the estimation of NaTech-induced release frequencies. A case-study representative of an industrial installation was discussed, comparing the risk due to conventional internal causes to that deriving from NaTech scenarios and identifying possible specific safety barriers. The case-study demonstrated that a significant risk increment may be associated to industrial facilities located in flood-prone areas when flood-triggered NaTech scenarios are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonioni, Giacomo & Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Gheorghiu, Diana & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of risk due to NaTech scenarios caused by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 334-345.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:142:y:2015:i:c:p:334-345
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.05.020
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    Cited by:

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    2. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2020. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in Natech scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Rossi, Lorenzo & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Landucci, Gabriele, 2022. "Vulnerability assessment of process pipelines affected by flood events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Tao Zeng & Guohua Chen & Yunfeng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Yixin Zhao & Xia Liu, 2020. "A Systematic Literature Review on Safety Research Related to Chemical Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-27, July.
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    6. Caratozzolo, Vincenzo & Misuri, Alessio & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A generalized equipment vulnerability model for the quantitative risk assessment of horizontal vessels involved in Natech scenarios triggered by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    7. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part I—Failure Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, May.
    8. Khakzad, Nima & Van Gelder, Pieter, 2018. "Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 403-411.
    9. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    10. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    11. Didier Soto & Florent Renard, 2015. "New prospects for the spatialisation of technological risks by combining hazard and the vulnerability of assets," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1531-1548, December.
    12. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    13. Bernier, Carl & Padgett, Jamie E., 2019. "Fragility and risk assessment of aboveground storage tanks subjected to concurrent surge, wave, and wind loads," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Di Maio, F. & Belotti, M. & Volpe, M. & Selva, J. & Zio, E., 2022. "Parallel density scanned adaptive Kriging to improve local tsunami hazard assessment for coastal infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    15. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    16. Nishino, Tomoaki & Miyashita, Takuya & Mori, Nobuhito, 2024. "Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    17. Ricci, Federica & Misuri, Alessio & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Cozzani, Valerio & Demichela, Micaela, 2024. "Vulnerability Assessment of Industrial Sites to Interface Fires and Wildfires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    18. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Zhang, Jun & Liu, Dedi & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Zhang, Xiaojing, 2020. "Considering different streamflow forecast horizons in the quantitative flood risk analysis for a multi-reservoir system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).

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