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Analysis of tsunami impact scenarios at an oil refinery

Author

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  • Ana Cruz
  • Elisabeth Krausmann
  • Giovanni Franchello

Abstract

This work analyses the potential consequences of two tsunami scenarios and their impacts on an oil refinery located in Sicily. Two credible tsunamis originating in the Tyrrhenian Sea were selected based on historical data. The potential for damage and hazardous materials releases resulting from the tsunami impacts to a refinery was assessed. The results obtained by the JRC tsunami propagation and inundation code HyFlux2 indicate that in both scenarios there would be eighteen storage tanks (of 43 located within 400 m from the shoreline) at the refinery subject to flooding. Water flow velocities were found to be generally low, >1 m/s, except for a central section of the refinery near the shoreline where the water flow velocities reach 3–4 m/s. These results indicate that any damage would most likely occur due to buoyancy loads particularly in the western part of the facility where inundation levels are higher and storage tanks are less protected. Potential damage caused by impact of floating debris may be a problem in the central area of the refinery near the shoreline due to high flow velocities (3–4 m/s) in both tsunami scenarios. Small hazardous materials releases could occur due to breakage of connected pipes and flanges caused by floating off of almost empty storage tanks or other equipment. Salt water intrusion could affect electrical equipment, such as control panels, pumps, and motors that are not raised above the inundation level. We conclude that in the two tsunami scenarios analysed, the risk to nearby residents and neighbouring facilities from potential hazardous materials releases, fires or explosions triggered by the tsunamis is likely to be small. Nonetheless, recommendations are made on prevention measures to reduce the risk of tsunami-triggered accidents and to mitigate their consequences if they do occur. The results of this study are limited by the uncertainty in the input data and most importantly by the accuracy of the elevation data and the model resolution. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Cruz & Elisabeth Krausmann & Giovanni Franchello, 2011. "Analysis of tsunami impact scenarios at an oil refinery," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 141-162, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:58:y:2011:i:1:p:141-162
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-010-9655-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Eskijian, 2006. "Mitigation of seismic and meteorological hazards to marine oil terminals and other pier and wharf structures in California," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 39(2), pages 343-351, October.
    2. Ayşen Ergin & Can Balas, 2006. "Damage risk assessment of breakwaters under tsunami attack," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 39(2), pages 231-243, October.
    3. Stefano Tinti & Alessandra Maramai & Laura Graziani, 2004. "The New Catalogue of Italian Tsunamis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 33(3), pages 439-465, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tiezhong Liu & Hubo Zhang & Xiaowei Li & Haiyan Li, 2017. "Effects of organization factors on flood-related Natechs in urban areas of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 355-365, August.
    2. Jiajun Wang & Zhichao He & Wenguo Weng, 2020. "A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2003-2026, December.
    3. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio & Krausmann, Elisabeth & Borghetti, Alberto & Alberto Nucci, Carlo, 2013. "A model for process equipment damage probability assessment due to lightning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 91-99.
    4. Khakzad, Nima & Van Gelder, Pieter, 2018. "Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 403-411.
    5. Nishino, Tomoaki & Miyashita, Takuya & Mori, Nobuhito, 2024. "Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

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