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Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries

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Cited by:

  1. Maria Tzitiridou-Chatzopoulou & Georgia Zournatzidou & Michael Kourakos, 2024. "Predicting Future Birth Rates with the Use of an Adaptive Machine Learning Algorithm: A Forecasting Experiment for Scotland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(7), pages 1-13, June.
  2. Koundouri, Phoebe & Papayiannis, Georgios & Vassilopoulos, Achilleas & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios, 2022. "A general framework for the generation of probabilistic socioeconomic scenarios and risk quantification concerning food security with application in the Upper Nile river basin," MPRA Paper 122044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Fengqing Chao & Christophe Z Guilmoto & Samir K. C. & Hernando Ombao, 2020. "Probabilistic projection of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births by State and Union Territory in India," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, August.
  4. Jonathan Azose & Adrian Raftery, 2015. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(5), pages 1627-1650, October.
  5. Dominik Paprotny, 2021. "Convergence Between Developed and Developing Countries: A Centennial Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 193-225, January.
  6. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2013. "A Theory of Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in the Process of Economic Development," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/19, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  7. Carl P. Schmertmann & Marcos R. Gonzaga, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1363-1388, August.
  8. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  9. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  10. Mei Sang & Jing Jiang & Xin Huang & Feifei Zhu & Qian Wang, 2024. "Spatial and temporal changes in population distribution and population projection at county level in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
  11. Vanella, Patrizio & Deschermeier, Philipp, 2018. "A Probabilistic Cohort-Component Model for Population Forecasting - The Case of Germany," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-638, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  12. Rebecca Folkman Gleditsch & Astri Syse, 2020. "Ways to project fertility in Europe. Perceptions of current practices and outcomes," Discussion Papers 929, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  13. Heinz Stefan, 2014. "Uncertainty quantification of world population growth: A self-similar PDF model," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 261-277, December.
  14. Daphne H. Liu & Adrian E. Raftery, 2020. "How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 409-441, September.
  15. Meng Xu & Helge Brunborg & Joel E. Cohen, 2017. "Evaluating multi-regional population projections with Taylor’s law of mean–variance scaling and its generalisation," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, March.
  16. Vanella, Patrizio, 2017. "Age- and Sex-Specific Fertility in Germany until the Year 2040 - The Impact of International Migration," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-606, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  17. Bailey Fosdick & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(35), pages 1011-1034.
  18. Kevin Rennert & Brian C. Prest & William A. Pizer & Richard G. Newell & David Anthoff & Cora Kingdon & Lisa Rennels & Roger Cooke & Adrian E. Raftery & Hana Sevcikova & Frank Errickson, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 223-305.
  19. Adrian E. Raftery & Nevena Lalic & Patrick Gerland, 2014. "Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(27), pages 795-822.
  20. Alkema, Leontine, 2020. "The Global Burden of Disease fertility forecasts: Summary of the approach used and associated statistical concerns," OSF Preprints 3m6va, Center for Open Science.
  21. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
  22. Bailey K. Fosdick & Adrian E. Raftery, 2012. "Estimating the Correlation in Bivariate Normal Data With Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(1), pages 34-41, February.
  23. Liu Qiang & Fernando Rios-Avila & Han Jiqin, 2020. "Is China's Low Fertility Rate Caused by the Population Control Policy?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_943, Levy Economics Institute.
  24. Pardey, Philip G. & Beddow, Jason M. & Hurley, Terrance M. & Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Eidman, Vernon R., 2014. "A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), October.
  25. Eduardo A. Castro & Zhen Zhang & Arnab Bhattacharjee & José M. Martins & Taps Maiti, 2013. "Regional fertility data analysis: A small area Bayesian approach," SEEC Discussion Papers 1302, Spatial Economics and Econometrics Centre, Heriot Watt University.
  26. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
  27. Jane N. O’Sullivan, 2023. "Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures," World, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-24, September.
  28. Carl Schmertmann & Emilio Zagheni & Joshua R. Goldstein & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(506), pages 500-513, June.
  29. Michael Pearce & Adrian E. Raftery, 2021. "Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(52), pages 1271-1294.
  30. Guy Abel & Jakub Bijak & Jonathan J. Forster & James Raymer & Peter W.F. Smith & Jackie S.T. Wong, 2013. "Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(43), pages 1187-1226.
  31. Patrizio Vanella & Philipp Deschermeier & Christina B. Wilke, 2020. "An Overview of Population Projections—Methodological Concepts, International Data Availability, and Use Cases," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, September.
  32. Phoebe Koundouri & Georgios I. Papayiannis & Achilleas Vassilopoulos & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2023. "Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia," Papers 2312.04428, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
  33. Mikko Myrskyla & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2011. "High development and fertility: fertility at older reproductive ages and gender equality explain the positive link," Working Papers 049, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
  34. Adrian Raftery & Jennifer Chunn & Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková, 2013. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 777-801, June.
  35. Niall Newsham & Francisco Rowe, 2021. "Projecting the demographic impact of Syrian migration in a rapidly ageing society, Germany," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 231-261, April.
  36. Ševčíková, Hana & Raftery, Adrian E., 2016. "bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 75(i05).
  37. Patrizio Vanella & Max J. Hassenstein, 2023. "Stochastic Forecasting of Regional Age-Specific Fertility Rates: An Outlook for German NUTS-3 Regions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, December.
  38. Hana Sevcikova & Adrian E. Raftery & Patrick Gerland, 2018. "Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(60), pages 1843-1884.
  39. Francesco Billari & Rebecca Graziani & Eugenio Melilli, 2014. "Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1933-1954, October.
  40. Asako Ohinata & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2020. "Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in Economic Development," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1640-1670, October.
  41. David J Sharrow & Samuel J Clark & Adrian E Raftery, 2014. "Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, May.
  42. Vanella, Patrizio, 2016. "The Total Fertility Rate in Germany until 2040 - A Stochastic Principal Components Projection based on Age-specific Fertility Rates," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-579, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
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