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Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration

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  • Jonathan Azose
  • Adrian Raftery

Abstract

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Azose & Adrian Raftery, 2015. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(5), pages 1627-1650, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:52:y:2015:i:5:p:1627-1650
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Ševčíková, Hana & Alkema, Leontine & Raftery, Adrian, 2011. "bayesTFR: An R package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i01).
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    Cited by:

    1. Koundouri, Phoebe & Papayiannis, Georgios & Vassilopoulos, Achilleas & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios, 2022. "A general framework for the generation of probabilistic socioeconomic scenarios and risk quantification concerning food security with application in the Upper Nile river basin," MPRA Paper 122044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lucie Kurekova, 2022. "Regional migration and the dimension of distance in empirical analysis," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, vol. 11(2), pages 80-91, November.
    3. Frans Willekens, 2018. "Towards causal forecasting of international migration," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 199-218.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Andreea Avramescu & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2021. "Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(40), pages 1219-1254.
    6. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    7. Demirel, Duygun Fatih & Basak, Melek, 2019. "A fuzzy bi-level method for modeling age-specific migration," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Robert M. Beyer & Jacob Schewe & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2022. "Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
    10. Agnieszka Fihel & Anna Janicka & Marek Okólski, 2023. "Predicting a Migration Transition in Poland and its Implications for Population Ageing," Post-Print hal-04488199, HAL.
    11. Trond Husby & Hans Visser, 2021. "Short- to medium-run forecasting of mobility with dynamic linear models," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(28), pages 871-902.
    12. Willekens Frans, 2019. "Evidence-Based Monitoring of International Migration Flows in Europe," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 35(1), pages 231-277, March.
    13. Tongzheng Pu & Chongxing Huang & Jingjing Yang & Ming Huang, 2023. "Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    14. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    15. Juan Caballero Reina & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Katharina Fenz & Jakob Zellmann & Teodor Yankov & Amr Taha, 2024. "Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-17, April.
    16. Albano Rikani & Jacob Schewe, 2021. "Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(4), pages 87-140.
    17. Phoebe Koundouri & Georgios I. Papayiannis & Achilleas Vassilopoulos & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2023. "Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia," Papers 2312.04428, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    18. Hélène Benveniste & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Matthew Gidden & Raya Muttarak, 2021. "Tracing international migration in projections of income and inequality across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Guy Abel, 2018. "Non-zero trajectories for long-run net migration assumptions in global population projection models," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(54), pages 1635-1662.

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