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Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia

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  • Koundouri, Phoebe
  • Papayiannis, Georgios I.
  • Vassilopoulos, Achilleas
  • Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N.

Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socioeco-nomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). This innovative method allows each scenario, encompassing socio-economic and climate factors, to be treated as a model capable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamic understanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paper details the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through a focused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, and underscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic and climatic factors in national food security assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Koundouri, Phoebe & Papayiannis, Georgios I. & Vassilopoulos, Achilleas & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N., 2023. "Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 122007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122007
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    food security risk; model uncertainty; probabilistic projections risk quantification; Representative Concentration Pathways; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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