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Probabilistic projection of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births by State and Union Territory in India

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  • Fengqing Chao
  • Christophe Z Guilmoto
  • Samir K. C.
  • Hernando Ombao

Abstract

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in India has been reported to be imbalanced since the 1970s. Previous studies have shown there is a great variation in the SRB between geographic locations across India till 2016. Considering the enormous population and regional heterogeneity of India, producing probabilistic SRB projections at the state level is crucial for policy planning and population projection. In this paper, we implement a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to project the SRB across India by state. We generate SRB probabilistic projections from 2017 to 2030 for 29 States and Union Territories (UTs) in India, and present results for 21 States/UTs with data available from the Sample Registration System. Our analysis takes into account two state-specific factors that contribute to sex-selective abortion in India, resulting in sex imbalances at birth: the intensity of son preference and fertility squeeze. We project that the highest deficits in female births will occur in Uttar Pradesh, with a cumulative number of missing female births of 2.0 (95% credible interval [1.9; 2.2]) million from 2017 to 2030. The total female birth deficits during 2017–2030 for the whole of India is projected to be 6.8 [6.6; 7.0] million.

Suggested Citation

  • Fengqing Chao & Christophe Z Guilmoto & Samir K. C. & Hernando Ombao, 2020. "Probabilistic projection of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births by State and Union Territory in India," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0236673
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236673
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Giannola, 2024. "Parental Investments and Intra-household Inequality in Child Human Capital: Evidence from a Survey Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(658), pages 671-727.
    2. Srinivas Goli & Somya Arora & Neha Jain & Sekher T. V., 2024. "Patrilocality and Child Sex Ratios in India," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-28, August.
    3. Abhishek Singh & Ashish Kumar Upadhyay & Kaushalendra Kumar & Ashish Singh & Fiifi Amoako Johnson & Sabu S. Padmadas, 2022. "Spatial heterogeneity in son preference across India’s 640 districts: An application of small-area estimation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(26), pages 793-842.
    4. Chao, Fengqing & Wazir, Muhammad Asif & Ombao, Hernando, 2021. "Levels and trends in sex ratio at birth in provinces of Pakistan from 1980 to 2020 with scenario-based missing female birth projections to 2050: a Bayesian modeling approach," SocArXiv 5n3y8, Center for Open Science.
    5. Neha Jain, 2022. "Patrilocality and Child Sex Ratios in India," Working Papers 2265, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    6. Ewa Cukrowska-Torzewska & Magdalena Grabowska, 2023. "The sex preference for children in Europe: Children’s sex and the probability and timing of births," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(8), pages 203-232.

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