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Population Aging, Social Security and Fiscal Limits

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  • Burkhard Heer
  • Vito Polito
  • Michael Wickens
  • Michael R. Wickens

Abstract

We study the sustainability of pension systems using a life-cycle model with distortionary taxation that sets an upper limit to the real value of tax revenues. This limit implies an endogenous threshold dependency ratio, i.e. a point in the cross-section distribution of the population beyond which tax revenues can no longer sustain the planned level of transfers to retirees. We quantify the threshold using a computable life-cycle model calibrated on the United States and fourteen European countries which have dependency ratios among the highest in the world. We examine the effects on the threshold and welfare of a number of policies often advocated to improve the sustainability of pension systems. New tax data on dynamic Laffer effects are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Burkhard Heer & Vito Polito & Michael Wickens & Michael R. Wickens, 2018. "Population Aging, Social Security and Fiscal Limits," CESifo Working Paper Series 7121, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7121
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    Cited by:

    1. Heer, Burkhard & Rohrbacher, Stefan, 2021. "Endogenous longevity and optimal tax progressivity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Michael Wickens, 2022. "How might the United Kingdom's debt–GDP ratio be reduced? Evidence from the last 120 years," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 369-384, June.
    3. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2023. "Pension Systems (Un)sustainability and Fiscal Constraints: A Comparative Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 18181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Kazuo Mino & Hiroaki Sasaki, 2023. "Population Aging and Income Inequality in a Semi-Endogenous Growth Model," KIER Working Papers 1096, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Cetin, Sefane & Hindriks, Jean, 2023. "Sustainability of pension reforms: An EU-wide political stress," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2023016, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Heer, Burkhard & Trede, Mark, 2023. "Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Edouard Ribes, 2022. "What are the financial implications of an ageing population for European citizens?," Working Papers hal-03118783, HAL.
    8. Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Julián A. Parra-Polanía, 2021. "Pensiones y reforma pensional: efectos macroeconómicos del envejecimiento en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1173, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    10. Johannes Huber & Christian Scharrer, 2024. "The fiscal and intergenerational burdens of brakes and subsidies for energy prices," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(5), pages 1249-1273, October.
    11. Chih-Ching Yu & Ching Lu, 2023. "Reassessing the Impact of Fear Appeals in Sustainable Consumption Communication: An Investigation into Message Types and Message Foci," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dependency ratio; fiscal space; Laffer effects; pensions; fiscal policy sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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