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An Overview of Population Projections—Methodological Concepts, International Data Availability, and Use Cases

Author

Listed:
  • Patrizio Vanella

    (Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), 38124 Brunswick, Germany)

  • Philipp Deschermeier

    (Institute for Housing and Environment (IWU), 64295 Darmstadt, Germany
    Equal contribution.)

  • Christina B. Wilke

    (Chair of Economics, FOM University of Applied Sciences, 28359 Bremen, Germany
    Equal contribution.)

Abstract

Population projections serve various actors at subnational, national, and international levels as a quantitative basis for political and economic decision-making. Usually, the users are no experts in statistics or forecasting and therefore lack the methodological and demographic background to completely understand methods and limitations behind the projections they use to inform further analysis. Our contribution primarily targets that readership. Therefore, we give a brief overview of different approaches to population projection and discuss their respective advantages and disadvantages, alongside practical problems in population data and forecasting. Fundamental differences between deterministic and stochastic approaches are discussed, with special emphasis on the advantages of stochastic approaches. Next to selected projection data available to the public, we show central areas of application of population projections, with an emphasis on Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrizio Vanella & Philipp Deschermeier & Christina B. Wilke, 2020. "An Overview of Population Projections—Methodological Concepts, International Data Availability, and Use Cases," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:2:y:2020:i:3:p:19-363:d:408030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Patrizio Vanella & Christina Benita Wilke & Doris Söhnlein, 2022. "Prevalence and Economic Costs of Absenteeism in an Aging Population—A Quasi-Stochastic Projection for Germany," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, March.

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