IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scandj/v122y2020i4p1640-1670.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in Economic Development

Author

Listed:
  • Asako Ohinata
  • Dimitrios Varvarigos

Abstract

Recent evidence on the “fertility rebound” offers credence to the idea that, from the onset of early industrialization to the present day, the dynamics of fertility can be represented by an N‐shaped curve. An overlapping generations model with parental investment in human capital can account for these observed movements in fertility rates during the different stages of demographic change. A demographic transition with declining fertility emerges at the intermediate stage, when parents engage on a child quantity–quality trade‐off. At later stages, however, the process of economic growth generates sufficient resources so that households can rear more children while still providing the desirable amount of education investment per child.

Suggested Citation

  • Asako Ohinata & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2020. "Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in Economic Development," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1640-1670, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:122:y:2020:i:4:p:1640-1670
    DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12391
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12391
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/sjoe.12391?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos, 2014. "Aging, growth and the allocation of public expenditures on health and education," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1173-1194, November.
    2. David De La Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2009. "To Segregate or to Integrate: Education Politics and Democracy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(2), pages 597-628.
    3. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Oded Galor, 2005. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05.
    5. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
    6. Dahan, Momi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1998. "Demographic Transition, Income Distribution, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 29-52, March.
    7. Prinz, Aloys, 1990. "Endogenous Fertility, Altruistic Behavior across Generations, and Social Security Systems," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(3), pages 179-192, October.
    8. Jason Collins & Oliver Richards, 2013. "Evolution, Fertility and the Ageing Population," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    9. Omer Moav and & Zvika Neeman, 2012. "Saving Rates and Poverty: The Role of Conspicuous Consumption and Human Capital," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(563), pages 933-956, September.
    10. Carl Schmertmann & Emilio Zagheni & Joshua R. Goldstein & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(506), pages 500-513, June.
    11. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2005. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 183-207, March.
    12. Tabata, Ken, 2003. "Inverted U-shaped fertility dynamics, the poverty trap and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 241-248, November.
    13. Arthur Campbell, 1974. "Beyond the demographic transition," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 11(4), pages 549-561, November.
    14. Jean-Marie Baland & James A. Robinson, 2000. "Is Child Labor Inefficient?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 663-679, August.
    15. Varvarigos, Dimitrios & Arsenis, Panagiotis, 2015. "Corruption, fertility, and human capital," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 145-162.
    16. Sascha Becker & Francesco Cinnirella & Ludger Woessmann, 2010. "The trade-off between fertility and education: evidence from before the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 177-204, September.
    17. John Bongaarts & Tomáš Sobotka, 2012. "A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38(1), pages 83-120, March.
    18. Omer Moav & Zvika Neeman, 2010. "Status and Poverty," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 413-420, 04-05.
    19. Moshe Hazan & Hosny Zoabi, 2015. "Do Highly Educated Women Choose Smaller Families?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(587), pages 1191-1226, September.
    20. de la Croix, David & Doepke, Matthias, 2004. "Public versus private education when differential fertility matters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 607-629, April.
    21. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    22. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay D. Maoz, 2015. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 1031-1073.
    23. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, September.
    24. Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis, 2017. "Secular Fertility Declines, Baby Booms, And Economic Growth: International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(7), pages 1601-1672, October.
    25. Lino, Mark & Kuczynski, Kevin & Rodriguez, Nestor & Schap, TusaRebecca, 2017. "Expenditures on Children by Families, 2015," CNPP Reports 327257, United States Department of Agriculture, Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion.
    26. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
    27. Rainald Borck, 2011. "Federalism, Fertility, and Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(1), pages 30-54, March.
    28. Karin Monstad & Carol Propper & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2008. "Education and Fertility: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(4), pages 827-852, December.
    29. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2014. "Optimal fertility along the life cycle," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(1), pages 185-224, January.
    30. Tamura, Robert, 1996. "From decay to growth: A demographic transition to economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1237-1261.
    31. Tom S. Vogl, 2016. "Differential Fertility, Human Capital, and Development," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 365-401.
    32. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1091-1113, September.
    33. Creina Day, 2012. "Economic Growth, Gender Wage Gap and Fertility Rebound," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 88-99, June.
    34. Ševčíková, Hana & Alkema, Leontine & Raftery, Adrian, 2011. "bayesTFR: An R package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i01).
    35. Jan Van Bavel & David S. Reher, 2013. "The Baby Boom and Its Causes: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(2), pages 257-288, June.
    36. Mikko Myrskylä & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "Advances in development reverse fertility declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 741-743, August.
    37. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    38. Tamura, Robert, 1994. "Fertility, Human Capital and the Wealth of Families," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(4), pages 593-603, May.
    39. Niels Møller & Paul Sharp, 2014. "Malthus in cointegration space: evidence of a post-Malthusian pre-industrial England," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 105-140, March.
    40. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1143-1179.
    41. Holger Strulik & Jacob Weisdorf, 2008. "Population, food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 195-216, September.
    42. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
    43. Leontine Alkema & Adrian Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Samuel Clark & François Pelletier & Thomas Buettner & Gerhard Heilig, 2011. "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 815-839, August.
    44. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00944864 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Dimitrios Varvarigos & Intan Zakaria, 2013. "Endogenous fertility in a growth model with public and private health expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 67-85, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Evangelos Dioikitopoulos & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2023. "Delay in childbearing and the evolution of fertility rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1545-1571, July.
    2. Nicolas Abad & Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "New fertility patterns: The role of human versus physical capital," AMSE Working Papers 2416, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    3. Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2022. "Postponement, career development and fertility rebound," AMSE Working Papers 2225, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    4. Takakura, Kei, 2023. "Child mortality, child labor, fertility, and demographics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Chen, Nana & Xu, Hangtian, 2021. "Why has the birth rate relatively increased in China's wealthy cities?," MPRA Paper 105960, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2013. "A Theory of Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in the Process of Economic Development," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/19, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    2. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    3. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Daishin Yasui, 2012. "Adult Longevity and Growth Takeoff," Discussion Papers 1218, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    5. Creina Day, 2012. "Will Fertility Rebound In Japan," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 395, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Andreas Schäfer, 2005. "The Interaction Between Endogenous Fertility And Inequality In The Political Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 522-541, July.
    7. Evangelos Dioikitopoulos & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2023. "Delay in childbearing and the evolution of fertility rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1545-1571, July.
    8. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "The past and future of knowledge-based growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 411-437, December.
    9. Momota, Akira, 2009. "A population-macroeconomic growth model for currently developing countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 431-453, February.
    10. Oded, Galor, 2011. "Inequality, Human Capital Formation, and the Process of Development," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 441-493, Elsevier.
    11. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
    12. Simone D’Alessandro & Tamara Fioroni, 2016. "Child labour and inequality," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(1), pages 63-79, March.
    13. Omer Moav, 2005. "Cheap Children and the Persistence of Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 88-110, January.
    14. Daniela Vidart, 2024. "Revisiting the Link Between Electrification and Fertility: Evidence from the Early 20th Century United States," Working papers 2024-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    15. Faustine Perrin, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory: An Insight," Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 36(3), pages 362-372.
    16. Luca GORI & Enrico LUPI & Piero MANFREDI & Mauro SODINI, 2020. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Development and the Demographic Transition: Fertility Reversal under the HIV Epidemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    17. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "Fertility and the oil curse," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 381-416, August.
    18. Gori, Luca & Sodini, Mauro, 2020. "Endogenous labour supply, endogenous lifetime and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 238-259.
    19. Abebe HAILEMARIAM, 2024. "Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 31-54, March.
    20. Oded Galor, 2010. "The 2008 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture-Comparative Economic Development: Insights From Unified Growth Theory," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 1-44, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:122:y:2020:i:4:p:1640-1670. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9442 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.