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Projecting the demographic impact of Syrian migration in a rapidly ageing society, Germany

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Listed:
  • Niall Newsham

    (University of Liverpool)

  • Francisco Rowe

    (University of Liverpool)

Abstract

Trends of persistent low fertility and increasing life expectancy have set Germany to undergo rapid population ageing and decline. In the context of the Syrian refugee crisis, immigration has been considered as a key mechanism to combat these demographic outlooks. This study assesses the demographic impact of Syrian migration into Germany. Deterministic and Bayesian probabilistic projection methods are used to determine the contribution of Syrian migrants to aggregate total fertility rate and the likelihood of subsequent population growth. Findings reveal that Syrian migration is projected to increase German period total fertility but not by the required levels to prevent depopulation. Whilst Syrian migration into Germany has been substantial over the past few years, fertile female cohorts are largely underrepresented in the migrant population and so only a moderate net-effect of Syrian migrants on German fertility is forecasted. A solution to Germany’ population decline may thus not be offered through Syrian migration, with depopulation projected to be a likely scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Niall Newsham & Francisco Rowe, 2021. "Projecting the demographic impact of Syrian migration in a rapidly ageing society, Germany," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 231-261, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:23:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10109-018-00290-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10109-018-00290-y
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugee migration; Demographic impacts; Bayesian probabilistic projections; Germany; Population decline; Population ageing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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