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Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources

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Cited by:

  1. François Bachoc & Emile Contal & Hassan Maatouk & Didier Rullière, 2017. "Gaussian processes for computer experiments," Post-Print hal-01665936, HAL.
  2. John Hudson, 2009. "Talking up Social Capital: An Analysis of Social Voice," Department of Economics Working Papers 6/09, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
  3. Fangruo Chen & Guoming Lai & Wenqiang Xiao, 2016. "Provision of Incentives for Information Acquisition: Forecast-Based Contracts vs. Menus of Linear Contracts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(7), pages 1899-1914, July.
  4. Wilson, Kevin J., 2017. "An investigation of dependence in expert judgement studies with multiple experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 325-336.
  5. Fiordaliso, Antonio, 1998. "A nonlinear forecasts combination method based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 367-379, September.
  6. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2017. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Discussion Paper Series dp709, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  7. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Can consumer sentiment and its components forecast Australian GDP and consumption?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 698-711.
  8. Terry A. Taylor & Wenqiang Xiao, 2010. "Does a Manufacturer Benefit from Selling to a Better-Forecasting Retailer?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(9), pages 1584-1598, September.
  9. Tao Lin & Yiling Chen, 2022. "Sample Complexity of Forecast Aggregation," Papers 2207.13126, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  10. P. J. Lamberson & Scott E. Page, 2012. "Optimal Forecasting Groups," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(4), pages 805-810, April.
  11. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
  12. Juanjuan Qin & Liguo Ren & Liangjie Xia, 2017. "Carbon Emission Reduction and Pricing Strategies of Supply Chain under Various Demand Forecasting Scenarios," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(01), pages 1-27, February.
  13. Lin, Shi-Woei & Bier, Vicki M., 2008. "A study of expert overconfidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 711-721.
  14. Li, Yongquan & Zhu, Kaijie, 2009. "Information acquisition in new product introduction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 618-625, October.
  15. repec:eid:wpaper:6/09 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
  17. Mehrez, A. & Yuan, Y. & Gafni, A., 1995. "The search for information -- A patient perspective on multiple opinions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 244-262, September.
  18. Stephen C. Hora, 2013. "A Note on the Aggregation of Event Probabilities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 909-914, May.
  19. Yue, Xiaohang & Mukhopadhyay, Samar K. & Zhu, Xiaowei, 2006. "A Bertrand model of pricing of complementary goods under information asymmetry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(10-11), pages 1182-1192, October.
  20. Paola Monari & Patrizia Agati, 2001. "Fiducial inference in combining expert judgements," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 10(1), pages 81-97, January.
  21. Stephen C. Hora & Benjamin R. Fransen & Natasha Hawkins & Irving Susel, 2013. "Median Aggregation of Distribution Functions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 279-291, December.
  22. Mehdi Mostaghimi, 2001. "Information Collection Strategic Design in Experts-assisted Decision Making Paradigm," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 10(5), pages 375-388, September.
  23. Patrizio Frederic & Mario Di Bacco & Frank Lad, 2012. "Combining expert probabilities using the product of odds," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 605-619, October.
  24. Esteban Fernández-Vázquez & Blanca Moreno, 2017. "Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 349-370, October.
  25. Hudson, John & Jones, Philip, 2001. "Measuring the efficiency of stochastic signals of product quality," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 35-49, March.
  26. Jaeseob Lim & Sang-Hun Lee, 2020. "Utility and use of accuracy cues in social learning of crowd preferences," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-25, October.
  27. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0909, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  28. Neil A. Stiber & Mitchell J. Small & Marina Pantazidou, 2004. "Site‐Specific Updating and Aggregation of Bayesian Belief Network Models for Multiple Experts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1529-1538, December.
  29. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2008. "Getting the Right Mix of Experts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 43-52, March.
  30. Tunç, Murat & Cavusoglu, Huseyin & Raghunathan, Srinivasan, 2021. "Online product reviews : Is a finer-grained rating scheme superior to a coarser one?," Other publications TiSEM ec57cbf3-7415-4427-aafc-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  31. Hudson, John, 2000. "A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of stochastic signals of product quality," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 599-607, October.
  32. Garratt, Anthony & Mise, Emi, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates using panel model and model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 32-40.
  33. repec:wrk:wrkemf:02 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Amita Singh, 2005. "Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 17-29, March.
  35. David M. Pennock & Michael P. Wellman, 2005. "Graphical Models for Groups: Belief Aggregation and Risk Sharing," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 148-164, September.
  36. Ali Mosleh & George Apostolakis, 1986. "The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(4), pages 447-461, December.
  37. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  38. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196, Elsevier.
  39. Francesco Billari & Rebecca Graziani & Eugenio Melilli, 2014. "Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1933-1954, October.
  40. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1999. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 187-203, April.
  41. Marcos R. Fernandes, 2024. "Combining Combined Forecasts: a Network Approach," Papers 2406.13749, arXiv.org.
  42. Stephen C. Hora, 2010. "An Analytic Method for Evaluating the Performance of Aggregation Rules for Probability Densities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1440-1449, October.
  43. Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Victor Richmond R. Jose & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., 2017. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 1110-1130, April.
  44. James Taylor & Derek Bunn, 1998. "Combining forecast quantiles using quantile regression: Investigating the derived weights, estimator bias and imposing constraints," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 193-206.
  45. Ma, Miaomiao & Meng, Weidong & Huang, Bo & Li, Yuyu, 2023. "The influence of dual credit policy on new energy vehicle technology innovation under demand forecast information asymmetry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
  46. Robert L. Winkler & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. & Victor Richmond R. Jose, 2019. "Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 239-260, December.
  47. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
  48. Yue, Xiaohang & Liu, John, 2006. "Demand forecast sharing in a dual-channel supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 646-667, October.
  49. Jaspersen, Johannes G., 2022. "Convex combinations in judgment aggregation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 780-794.
  50. Ting Zhang & Xiaowei Zhu & Qinglong Gou, 2017. "Demand Forecasting and Pricing Decision with the Entry of Store Brand under Various Information Sharing Scenarios," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(02), pages 1-26, April.
  51. Chris Hudson & John Hudson, 2008. "Guaranteeing quality in the EU: who gains most?," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 283-298, June.
  52. Bergemann, Dirk & Ottaviani, Marco, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  53. Ali Mosleh & Vicki Bier, 1992. "On Decomposition and Aggregation Error in Estimation: Some Basic Principles and Examples," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 203-214, June.
  54. Bian, Wenliang & Shang, Jennifer & Zhang, Juliang, 2016. "Two-way information sharing under supply chain competition," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 82-94.
  55. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
  56. Anil Gaba & Dana G. Popescu & Zhi Chen, 2019. "Assessing Uncertainty from Point Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 90-106, January.
  57. Bordley, Robert & Bier, Vicki, 2009. "Updating beliefs about variables given new information on how those variables relate," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 184-194, February.
  58. Zhong, Qinjia & Wang, Jianjun & Zou, Zongbao & Lai, Xiaofan, 2023. "The incentives for information sharing in online retail platforms," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  59. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye, 2013. "Combining Experts: Decomposition and Aggregation Order," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1116-1127, June.
  60. Wolden Bache, Ida & Sofie Jore, Anne & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2011. "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.
  61. Asa B. Palley & Jack B. Soll, 2019. "Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information Is Shared," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2291-2309, May.
  62. Yanwei Jia & Jussi Keppo & Ville Satopää, 2023. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2713-2732, May.
  63. Mümin Kurtuluş & Sezer Ülkü & Beril L. Toktay, 2012. "The Value of Collaborative Forecasting in Supply Chains," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 82-98, January.
  64. Zhu, Xiaowei & Mukhopadhyay, Samar K. & Yue, Xiaohang, 2011. "Role of forecast effort on supply chain profitability under various information sharing scenarios," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 284-291, February.
  65. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2018. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1779-1803, April.
  66. Yao, Dong-Qing & Yue, Xiaohang & Wang, Xiaoyin & Liu, John J., 2005. "The impact of information sharing on a returns policy with the addition of a direct channel," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 196-209, August.
  67. Mehmet Eren Ahsen & Mehmet Ulvi Saygi Ayvaci & Srinivasan Raghunathan, 2019. "When Algorithmic Predictions Use Human-Generated Data: A Bias-Aware Classification Algorithm for Breast Cancer Diagnosis," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 97-116, March.
  68. Kamiński, Bogumił, 2015. "A method for the updating of stochastic kriging metamodels," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(3), pages 859-866.
  69. Fu, Qi & Zhu, Kaijie, 2010. "Endogenous information acquisition in supply chain management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 454-462, March.
  70. Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper 2009/19, Norges Bank.
  71. Andrew T. Ching & Robert Clark & Ignatius Horstmann & Hyunwoo Lim, 2016. "The Effects of Publicity on Demand: The Case of Anti-Cholesterol Drugs," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 158-181, January.
  72. Robert L. Winkler & Robert T. Clemen, 2004. "Multiple Experts vs. Multiple Methods: Combining Correlation Assessments," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 167-176, September.
  73. D. J. Johnstone, 2009. "Discussion of Penman," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 45(3), pages 372-378, September.
  74. Biener, Christian, 2013. "Pricing in Microinsurance Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 132-144.
  75. Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 2020. "Thematic reflections on 18 expert commentaries," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
  76. Mostaghimi, Mehdi, 1996. "Combining ranked mean value forecasts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 505-516, November.
  77. Mukhopadhyay, Samar K. & Yue, Xiaohang & Zhu, Xiaowei, 2011. "A Stackelberg model of pricing of complementary goods under information asymmetry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 424-433, December.
  78. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-172/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  79. Jason R. W. Merrick & Rene Van Dorp, 2006. "Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 223-237, February.
  80. Ali E. Abbas, 2009. "A Kullback-Leibler View of Linear and Log-Linear Pools," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 25-37, March.
  81. Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., 2009. "Random quantiles of the Dirichlet process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(4), pages 501-507, February.
  82. Mark Freeman & Ben Groom, 2015. "Using equity premium survey data to estimate future wealth," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 665-693, November.
  83. Szwed, P. & Dorp, J. Rene van & Merrick, J.R.W. & Mazzuchi, T.A. & Singh, A., 2006. "A Bayesian paired comparison approach for relative accident probability assessment with covariate information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 157-177, February.
  84. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
  85. Saurabh Bansal & Genaro J. Gutierrez, 2020. "Estimating Uncertainties Using Judgmental Forecasts with Expert Heterogeneity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 363-380, March.
  86. Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Combining Recession Probability Forecasts from a Dynamic Probit Indicator," IMK Working Paper 89-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  87. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.
  88. Yi Xiang & Miklos Sarvary, 2013. "Buying and selling information under competition," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 321-351, September.
  89. Maines, Laureen A., 1996. "An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 223-233, June.
  90. Robert J. Budnitz & George Apostolakis & David M. Boore & Lloyd S. Cluff & Kevin J. Coppersmith & C. Allin Cornell & Peter A. Morris, 1998. "Use of Technical Expert Panels: Applications to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 463-469, August.
  91. Qiangqiang Kang & Jiagen Hou & Liqin Liu & Mingqiu Hou & Yuming Liu, 2023. "Quantitative Prediction of Braided Sandbodies Based on Probability Fusion and Multi-Point Geostatistics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-23, March.
  92. Xiaowei Zhu, 2017. "Outsourcing management under various demand Information Sharing scenarios," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 257(1), pages 449-467, October.
  93. Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2012. "A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1349-1355.
  94. Gai, Prasanna & Lou, Edmund & Wu, Sherry X., 2020. "Targeted disclosure and monetary policy flexibility: A simple model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
  95. Liu, Xiuli & Moreno, Blanca & García, Ana Salomé, 2016. "A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 1042-1054.
  96. K=osaku Takanashi & Kenichiro McAlinn, 2019. "Equivariant online predictions of non-stationary time series," Papers 1911.08662, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
  97. Sulian Wang & Chen Wang, 2021. "Quantile Judgments of Lognormal Losses: An Experimental Investigation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 78-99, March.
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