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Updating beliefs about variables given new information on how those variables relate

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  • Bordley, Robert
  • Bier, Vicki

Abstract

Bayesian techniques specify how to update beliefs about a variable given information on that variable or related variables. In many cases, statistical analyses also provide information about the relationship between variables, but the Borel Paradox prohibits many natural ways of updating beliefs conditioned on information about a relationship. This paper presents a method by which beliefs can be updated without violating the Borel Paradox under certain circumstances. We apply our approach to relationships specified by a statistical model (i.e., regression), and relationships described by statistical simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bordley, Robert & Bier, Vicki, 2009. "Updating beliefs about variables given new information on how those variables relate," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 184-194, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:193:y:2009:i:1:p:184-194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schweder, T. & Hjort, N.L., 1996. "Bayesian Synthesis or Likelihood Synthesis - What Does the Borel Paradox Say?," Memorandum 1996_013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Robert L. Winkler, 1981. "Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 479-488, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Victor & Liu, Ben S.C. & Sudharshan, D. & Xu, Qianwen Ariel, 2021. "Towards an effective negotiation modeling: Investigating transboundary disputes with cases of lower possibilities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    2. Robert F. Bordley, 2023. "Lessons for Decision-Analysis Practice from the Automotive Industry," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 53(3), pages 240-246, May.

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