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Updating Climate Beliefs Based on Latest IPCC Report Points to Increased Willingness to Act

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Freeman
  • Ben Groom
  • Frikk Nesje
  • Gernot Wagner

Abstract

We assess how changes in the scientific consensus around equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), as captured by the IPCC’s Fifth (AR5) and Sixth (AR6) Assessment Reports, impact policymakers’ willingness to take climate action. Taking the IPCC’s reports at face value, the ECS estimates in AR6 would have lowered a policymaker’s willingness to act on climate relative to AR5 due to a narrower “likely” range. However, Bayesian updating may reverse this conclusion. An accuracy-motivated policymaker who was not convinced to take greater climate action by the evidence in AR5 may be more likely to strengthen their policy views by the evidence in AR6.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Freeman & Ben Groom & Frikk Nesje & Gernot Wagner, 2025. "Updating Climate Beliefs Based on Latest IPCC Report Points to Increased Willingness to Act," CESifo Working Paper Series 11668, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11668
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11668.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    equilibrium climate sensitivity; Bayesian updating; climate policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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