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An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination

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  • Maines, Laureen A.

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  • Maines, Laureen A., 1996. "An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 223-233, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:12:y:1996:i:2:p:223-233
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    1. Figlewski, Stephen & Urich, Thomas, 1983. "Optimal Aggregation of Money Supply Forecasts: Accuracy, Profitability and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 695-710, June.
    2. O'brien, Patricia C., 1988. "Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-83, January.
    3. Miller, Christopher M. & Clemen, Robert T. & Winkler, Robert L., 1992. "The effect of nonstationarity on combined forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 515-529, March.
    4. Brown, Lawrence D., 1991. "Forecast selection when all forecasts are not equally recent," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 349-356, November.
    5. Robert L. Winkler, 1981. "Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 479-488, April.
    6. Lawrence, Michael & Makridakis, Spyros, 1989. "Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 172-187, April.
    7. Bamber, Em, 1983. "Expert Judgment In The Audit Team - A Source Reliability Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 396-413.
    8. Robin M. Hogarth & Spyros Makridakis, 1981. "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 115-138, February.
    9. Kroll, Yoram & Levy, Haim & Rapoport, Amnon, 1988. "Experimental Tests of the Separation Theorem and the Capital Asset Pricing Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 500-519, June.
    10. Heejoon Kang, 1986. "Unstable Weights in the Combination of Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 683-695, June.
    11. Clemon, Robert T & Winkler, Robert L, 1986. "Combining Economic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 39-46, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Albert E. Mannes, 2009. "Are We Wise About the Wisdom of Crowds? The Use of Group Judgments in Belief Revision," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(8), pages 1267-1279, August.
    2. Machado, André & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2021. "Sell-side analyst reports and decision-maker reactions: Role of heuristics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    3. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
    4. Boiney, Lindsley G. & Kennedy, Jane & Nye, Pete, 1997. "Instrumental Bias in Motivated Reasoning: More When More Is Needed," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 1-24, October.
    5. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    6. Allan W. Gregory & Hui Zhu, 2014. "Testing the value of lead information in forecasting monthly changes in employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7), pages 505-514, April.
    7. F Caniato & M Kalchschmidt & S Ronchi, 2011. "Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: organizational learning in an action research case," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 413-424, March.
    8. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    9. Harvey, Nigel & Harries, Clare, 2004. "Effects of judges' forecasting on their later combination of forecasts for the same outcomes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 391-409.
    10. Ilan Yaniv & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Maxim Milyavsky, 2008. "Spurious Consensus and Opinion Revision: Why Might People Be More Confident in Their Less Accurate Judgments?," Discussion Paper Series dp492, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    11. Budescu, David V. & Rantilla, Adrian K. & Yu, Hsiu-Ting & Karelitz, Tzur M., 2003. "The effects of asymmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 178-194, January.
    12. Jeffrey Hales, 2007. "Directional Preferences, Information Processing, and Investors' Forecasts of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 607-628, June.
    13. Fischer, Ilan & Harvey, Nigel, 1999. "Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 227-246, July.

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