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The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves

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  • Ali Mosleh
  • George Apostolakis

Abstract

A method is developed for estimating a probability distribution using estimates of its percentiles provided by experts. The analyst's judgment concerning the credibility of these expert opinions is quantified in the likelihood function of Bayes’Theorem. The model considers explicitly the random variability of each expert estimate, the dependencies among the estimates of each expert, the dependencies among experts, and potential systematic biases. The relation between the results of the formal methods of this paper and methods used in practice is explored. A series of sensitivity studies provides insights into the significance of the parameters of the model. The methodology is applied to the problem of estimation of seismic fragility curves (i.e., the conditional probability of equipment failure given a seismically induced stress).

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Mosleh & George Apostolakis, 1986. "The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(4), pages 447-461, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:6:y:1986:i:4:p:447-461
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00957.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter A. Morris, 1974. "Decision Analysis Expert Use," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(9), pages 1233-1241, May.
    2. Robert L. Winkler, 1981. "Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 479-488, April.
    3. Peter A. Morris, 1977. "Combining Expert Judgments: A Bayesian Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(7), pages 679-693, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sakurahara, Tatsuya & Schumock, Grant & Reihani, Seyed & Kee, Ernie & Mohaghegh, Zahra, 2019. "Simulation-Informed Probabilistic Methodology for Common Cause Failure Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 84-99.
    2. Abhinav B. Agrawal & Kash Barker & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2011. "Adaptive multiplayer approach for risk‐based decision‐making: 2006 Virginia Gubernatorial Inauguration," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 455-470, December.
    3. Neil A. Stiber & Mitchell J. Small & Marina Pantazidou, 2004. "Site‐Specific Updating and Aggregation of Bayesian Belief Network Models for Multiple Experts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1529-1538, December.
    4. Yuan-Shang Chang & Ali Mosleh, 2019. "Reliability of cable insulation under reaction- and diffusion-controlled thermal degradation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(4), pages 639-647, August.
    5. Roger M. Cooke & Rudi Waij, 1986. "Monte Carlo Sampling for Generalized Knowledge Dependence with Application to Human Reliability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), pages 335-343, September.
    6. Yuan-Shang Chang & Ali Mosleh, 2019. "Probabilistic model of degradation of cable insulations in nuclear power plants," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(5), pages 803-814, October.
    7. Dimitri V. Val & Leon Chernin & Daniil Yurchenko, 2021. "Updatable Probabilistic Evaluation of Failure Rates of Mechanical Components in Power Take-Off Systems of Tidal Stream Turbines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    8. Justin W. Eggstaff & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Shahram Sarkani, 2014. "The Development of Progress Plans Using a Performance‐Based Expert Judgment Model to Assess Technical Performance and Risk," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 375-391, December.
    9. James K. Hammitt & Alexander I. Shlyakhter, 1999. "The Expected Value of Information and the Probability of Surprise," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 135-152, February.
    10. Elaheh Rabiei & Lixian Huang & Hao-Yu Chien & Arjun Earthperson & Mihai A Diaconeasa & Jason Woo & Subramanian Iyer & Mark White & Ali Mosleh, 2021. "Method and software platform for electronic COTS parts reliability estimation in space applications," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 235(5), pages 744-760, October.

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