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Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment

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  • Jason R. W. Merrick
  • Rene Van Dorp

Abstract

Several major risk studies have been performed in recent years in the maritime transportation domain. These studies have had significant impact on management practices in the industry. The first, the Prince William Sound risk assessment, was reviewed by the National Research Council and found to be promising but incomplete, as the uncertainty in its results was not assessed. The difficulty in assessing this uncertainty is the different techniques that need to be used to model risk in this dynamic and data‐scarce application area. In previous articles, we have developed the two pieces of methodology necessary to assess uncertainty in maritime risk assessment, a Bayesian simulation of the occurrence of situations with accident potential and a Bayesian multivariate regression analysis of the relationship between factors describing these situations and expert judgments of accident risk. In this article, we combine the methods to perform a full‐scale assessment of risk and uncertainty for two case studies. The first is an assessment of the effects of proposed ferry service expansions in San Francisco Bay. The second is an assessment of risk for the Washington State Ferries, the largest ferry system in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason R. W. Merrick & Rene Van Dorp, 2006. "Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 223-237, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:26:y:2006:i:1:p:223-237
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00708.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johan R. Van Dorp & Jason R. W. Merrick & John R. Harrald & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Martha Grabowski, 2001. "A Risk Management Procedure for the Washington State Ferries," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 127-142, February.
    2. Timothy G. Fowler & Eirik Sørgård, 2000. "Modeling Ship Transportation Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 225-244, April.
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    5. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene Van Dorp & Varun Dinesh, 2005. "Assessing Uncertainty in Simulation‐Based Maritime Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 731-743, June.
    6. Robert L. Winkler, 1981. "Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 479-488, April.
    7. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Amita Singh, 2005. "Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 17-29, March.
    8. H. Christopher Frey & David E. Burmaster, 1999. "Methods for Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty: Comparison of Bootstrap Simulation and Likelihood‐Based Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 109-130, February.
    9. Szwed, P. & Dorp, J. Rene van & Merrick, J.R.W. & Mazzuchi, T.A. & Singh, A., 2006. "A Bayesian paired comparison approach for relative accident probability assessment with covariate information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 157-177, February.
    10. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. René van Dorp & Thomas Mazzuchi & John R. Harrald & John E. Spahn & Martha Grabowski, 2002. "The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 25-40, December.
    11. Stan Kaplan, 1997. "The Words of Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 407-417, August.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Alberto Solana‐Ortega & Vicente Solana, 2007. "What Comes After the Prestige Disaster? An Entropic Approach to Modeling the Recurrence of Major Oil Tanker Spills in Galicia," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 901-920, August.
    4. Puisa, Romanas & Montewka, Jakub & Krata, Przemyslaw, 2023. "A framework estimating the minimum sample size and margin of error for maritime quantitative risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    5. Özgecan S. Ulusçu & Birnur Özbaş & Tayfur Altıok & İlhan Or, 2009. "Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1454-1472, October.
    6. Jinfen Zhang & Ângelo P Teixeira & C. Guedes Soares & Xinping Yan & Kezhong Liu, 2016. "Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(6), pages 1171-1187, June.
    7. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2009. "Bayesian Simulation and Decision Analysis: An Expository Survey," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 222-238, December.
    8. Gino J. Lim & Jaeyoung Cho & Selim Bora & Taofeek Biobaku & Hamid Parsaei, 2018. "Models and computational algorithms for maritime risk analysis: a review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 765-786, December.

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