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Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons

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  • Jason R. W. Merrick

    (Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, P.O. Box 843083, 1001 West Main Street, Richmond, Virginia 23284)

  • J. Rene van Dorp

    (George Washington University, 1776 G. Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052)

  • Amita Singh

    (George Washington University, 1776 G. Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052)

Abstract

We develop a Bayesian multivariate analysis of expert judgment elicited using an extended form of pairwise comparisons. The method can be used to estimate the effect of multiple factors on the probability of an event and can be applied in risk analysis and other decision problems. The model, which parallels Bayesian models for combining expert judgments, provides predictions of the quantity of interest that incorporate dependencies among the various experts. In this form we may learn about the dependencies between the experts from their responses. The analysis is applied to a real data set of expert judgments elicited during the Washington State Ferries Risk Assessment. The effect of the statistical dependence among experts is compared to an analysis assuming independence among them.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Amita Singh, 2005. "Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 17-29, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:2:y:2005:i:1:p:17-29
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1050.0031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. L. Robin Keller, 2007. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 111-113, September.
    2. Jason R. W. Merrick & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Refik Soyer & L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 81-85, June.
    3. Suyi Li & Qiang Meng & Xiaobo Qu, 2012. "An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 496-512, March.
    4. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & Manel Baucells & Vicki M. Bier & David Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 327-330, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 173-176, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & Kevin F. McCardle & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2007. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 173-175, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2009. "From the Editors ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 199-201, December.
    5. Jason R. W. Merrick & Rene Van Dorp, 2006. "Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 223-237, February.
    6. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye, 2013. "Combining Experts: Decomposition and Aggregation Order," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1116-1127, June.
    7. L. Robin Keller, 2007. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 47-48, June.
    8. L. Robin Keller, 2008. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 1-4, March.
    9. Gino J. Lim & Jaeyoung Cho & Selim Bora & Taofeek Biobaku & Hamid Parsaei, 2018. "Models and computational algorithms for maritime risk analysis: a review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 765-786, December.
    10. Hoffmann, Sandra A. & Fischbeck, Paul S. & Krupnick, Alan J. & McWilliams, Michael, 2006. "Eliciting Information on Uncertainty from Heterogeneous Expert Panels: Attributing U.S. Foodborne Pathogen Illness to Food Consumption," Discussion Papers 10444, Resources for the Future.
    11. Saurabh Bansal & Genaro J. Gutierrez, 2020. "Estimating Uncertainties Using Judgmental Forecasts with Expert Heterogeneity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 363-380, March.
    12. Sandra Hoffmann & Paul Fischbeck & Alan Krupnick & Michael McWilliams, 2007. "Elicitation from Large, Heterogeneous Expert Panels: Using Multiple Uncertainty Measures to Characterize Information Quality for Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 91-109, June.
    13. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 151-154, June.
    14. J. Dorp & Jason Merrick, 2011. "On a risk management analysis of oil spill risk using maritime transportation system simulation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 249-277, July.

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