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Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Gocht

    (Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut)

  • Norbert Röder

    (Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut)

  • Sebastian Neuenfeldt

    (Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut)

  • Hugo Storm

    (Bonn University)

  • Thomas Heckelei

    (Bonn University)

Abstract

The present study aims to develop a prototype analytical tool to assess structural changes at the farm level in EU-27 using the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) combined with the Farm Structure Survey (FSS). For the purpose of this study, farm structural change is related to the change in production systems, therefore a change in farm size and farm entry/exit into one sector/farm typology. In the ex-post analysis of structural change two methodologies are presented, one in which structural change is analysed from a discrete perspective using a Markov approach, whereas the second uses the continuous perspective to evaluate the type of farming over time using MCI (Multiplicative Competitive Interaction) models. The methodolgies are applied in selected German regions and the goodness of fit in the out of sample prediction is compared. In the ex-ante methodology, the existing farm module of CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact System) is expanded by considering the findings of the statistical ex-post-analysis when projecting farm-type structural change in the baseline trends. Results show that the Markov prediction may outperform naïve prediction methods but that the quality of the prediction is critically dependent on the model specification. A higher in-sample fit does not necessarily lead to better out-of-sample prediction, which potentially indicates that the effects of specific explanatory variables may change over time. In addition, introducing structural change into the CAPRI farm type baseline improve policy impact assessment and hence a more reliable and consistent farm grid for simulations is constructed.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc75524
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Alexander Gocht & Thomas Heckelei & Klaus Mittenzwei & Pavel Ciaian, 2021. "Using Aggregated Farm Location Information to Predict Regional Structural Change of Farm Specialisation, Size and Exit/Entry in Norway Agriculture," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, July.
    3. Neuenfeldt, S. & Rieger, J. & Heckelei, T. & Gocht, A. & Ciaian, P. & Tetteh, G., 2018. "A multiplicative competitive interaction model to explain structural change along farm specialisation, size and exit/entry using Norwegian farm census data," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277090, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Neuenfeldt, Sebastian & Gocht, Alexander & Ciaian, Pavel & Heckelei, Thomas & Jongeneel, Roel, 2017. "Structural Change In European Agriculture," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261141, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural change; FADN; FSS; Markov Chain; MCI model; CAPRI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other

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