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Mobility of agricultural labour and fluctuating regional labour markets: A demographic and economic analysis with application to West-Germany

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  • HARTWIG DE HAEN
  • JOACHIM VON BRAUN

Abstract

Summary The paper is an attempt to contribute to the actual question in how far the reduced economic growth and the lack of non-farm jobs affects the process of agricultural adjustment via a decline of the agricultural labour force. A demographic cohort model is specified to decompose the total rate of change of agricultural labour. It is applied to West-Germany at the national and state (‘Land’) level to quantify the historical rates of change resulting from aging, death, disability and early retirement, respectively. The remaining non-autonomous rate of change (occupational mobility) is then explained within an age-specific econometric model. Explanatory variables relate to the labour market situation, to income and to the national growth rate of GNP. The numerical results show clear interregional differences in the impact of regional labour markets, income differentials and age structures on level and structure of the total rate of change. In order to identify areas where rural labour market policies should have priority, a regional projection of autonomous natural rates of decline is presented at the ‘Kreis’ level. The results indicate that the projected autonomous rates vary from 1.2 to 3.6 per cent. The observed interregional differences of farm size structures and labour market situations do not in all cases compensate for these differences and, hence, call for counteracting regional and labour market policies in selected problem areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Hartwig De Haen & Joachim Von Braun, 1977. "Mobility of agricultural labour and fluctuating regional labour markets: A demographic and economic analysis with application to West-Germany," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 4(3), pages 215-243.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:4:y:1977:i:3:p:215-243.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/4.3.215
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    Cited by:

    1. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Differences of farm structural change across European regions," Discussion Papers 162879, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    2. Garvey, E., 2006. "Estimations of Labour Inputs using FADN Data," Reports 9288, Wageningen University, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society.
    3. Andrea Zimmermann & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Structural Change of European Dairy Farms – A Cross-Regional Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 576-603, September.
    4. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Loughrey, Jason & Donnellan, Trevor & Hanrahan, Kevin & Hennessy, Thia, 2013. "Agricultural Labour Market Flexibility in the EU and Candidate Countries," Working papers 155707, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    6. Harald Witzke, 1986. "Endogenous supranational policy decisions: The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Community," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 157-174, January.
    7. Donnellan,Trevor & Hanrahan,Kevin & Hennessy,Thia, 2012. "Defining an Institutional Framework for the Labour Market," Factor Markets Working Papers 129, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    8. Donnellan, Trevor & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & Hennessy, Thia C., 2012. "Defining an Institutional Framework for the Labour Market," Working papers 123280, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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