IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaae05/24772.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dairy Farm Size Distribution in East and West: Evolution and Sensitivity to Structural and Policy Variables: Case-Studies of the Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Jongeneel, Roelof A.
  • Longworth, Natasha
  • Huettel, Silke

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamics in the farm size distribution for The Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary. A (non-)stationary Markov model approach is used. The transition probabilities are explained by a set of exogenous (policy) variables. The models are estimated using an information theoretical approach, including non-sample (prior) information. The models can be used to simulate the impact of alternative dairy policies on the dairy sector structure. For all countries there is an autonomous decline in farm numbers over time (implying increase in average farm size). This trend continues irrespective of the EU dairy policy type. For both Hungary and Poland the role of the subsistence sector is expected to substantially decrease over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Longworth, Natasha & Huettel, Silke, 2005. "Dairy Farm Size Distribution in East and West: Evolution and Sensitivity to Structural and Policy Variables: Case-Studies of the Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24772, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24772
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.24772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/24772/files/os05jo01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.24772?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zepeda, Lydia, 1995. "Technical Change and the Structure of Production: A Non-stationary Markov Analysis," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 22(1), pages 41-60.
    2. Amos Golan & Stephen Vogel, 2000. "Estimation of Non-Stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply-Side Information," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-471.
    3. Karantininis, Kostas, 2002. "Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 275-290, March.
    4. Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Polman, Nico B.P. & Slangen, Louis H.G., 2005. "Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24526, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. MacRae, Elizabeth Chase, 1977. "Estimation of Time-Varying Markov Processes with Aggregate Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 183-198, January.
    6. Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Slangen, Louis H.G., 2005. "Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors," 94th Seminar, April 9-10, 2005, Ashford, UK 24441, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Jeremy D. Foltz, 2004. "Entry, Exit, and Farm Size: Assessing an Experiment in Dairy Price Policy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 594-604.
    9. Ellen Goddard & Alfons Weersink & Kevin Chen & Calum G. Turvey, 1993. "Economics of Structural Change in Agriculture," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 41(4), pages 475-489, December.
    10. Jean-Paul Chavas & Gilbert Magand, 1988. "A dynamic analysis of the size distribution of firms: The case of the US dairy industry," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(4), pages 315-329.
    11. Bernard F. Stanton & Lauri Kettunen, 1967. "Potential Entrants and Projections in Markov Process Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 633-642.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas & Adenauer, Marcel, 2007. "Report and Code to Simulate Structural Change," Reports 57468, Wageningen University, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society.
    2. Zier, Patrick, 2013. "Econometric impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy in East German agriculture," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 71, number 71.
    3. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas & Perez Dominguez, Ignacio, 2006. "Working paper: Literature Review of Approaches to Estimate Structural Change," Reports 9304, Wageningen University, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2002. "An Analysis of the Impact of Alternative EU Dairy Policies on the Size Distribution of Dutch Dairy Farms: an Information Based Approach to the Non-Stationary Markov Chain Model," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24892, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Huettel, Silke & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2008. "Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands - A Markov Chain Analysis," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Differences of farm structural change across European regions," Discussion Papers 162879, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    5. Piet, Laurent, 2008. "The evolution of farm size distribution: revisiting the Markov chain model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44269, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Legrand D. F, Saint-Cyr, 2017. "Farm heterogeneity and agricultural policy impacts on size dynamics: evidence from France," Working Papers SMART 17-04, INRAE UMR SMART.
    7. Huettel, Silke & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2009. "Impact of the EU Milk Quota on Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50943, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Wobst, Peter & Arndt, Channing, 2004. "HIV/AIDS and Labor Force Upgrading in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 1831-1847, November.
    9. Karantininis, Kostas, 2002. "Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 275-290, March.
    10. Heath Henderson, 2014. "Structural transformation and smallholder agriculture: an information-theoretic analysis of the Nicaraguan case," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 443-458, July.
    11. Neuenfeldt, S. & Rieger, J. & Heckelei, T. & Gocht, A. & Ciaian, P. & Tetteh, G., 2018. "A multiplicative competitive interaction model to explain structural change along farm specialisation, size and exit/entry using Norwegian farm census data," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277090, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Arndt, Channing & Wobst, Peter, 2002. "HIV/AIDS and labor markets in Tanzania," TMD discussion papers 102, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Wobst, Peter & Arndt, Channing, 2003. "HIV/AIDS and Primary School Performance in Tanzania," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25870, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Niskanen, Olli & Iho, Antti & Kalliovirta, Leena, 2020. "Scenario for structural development of livestock production in the Baltic littoral countries," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    15. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas & Adenauer, Marcel, 2007. "Report and Code to Simulate Structural Change," Reports 57468, Wageningen University, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society.
    16. Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei & Ron C. Mittelhammer, 2016. "Bayesian estimation of non-stationary Markov models combining micro and macro data," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(2), pages 303-329.
    17. Xavier, Antonio & Martins, Maria de Belem Costa Freitas & Fragoso, Rui Manuel de Sousa, 2011. "Recovery of Incomplete Data of Statistical Livestock Number Applying an Entropy Approach," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115790, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Maples, Chellie H. & Hagerman, Amy D. & Lambert, Dayton M., 2022. "Ex-ante effects of the 2018 Agricultural Improvement Act’s grassland initiative," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    19. Sherman Robinson & Andrea Cattaneo & Moataz El-Said, 2001. "Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 47-64.
    20. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.