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Projection of Farm Numbers for North Dakota With Markov Chains

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  • Krenz, Ronald D.

Abstract

The Markov process was first applied in economics to problems of relative structure, as for example in the analysis of income and wage distributions. The extension of such distributions over time was an initial step in projection. The analysis in this paper takes a further step by developing a method for making projections of absolute numbers from an appropriately modified Markov base. This new departure represents both a weakness and a strength; weakness because the modifying assumptions abstract considerably from reality, but strength because the technique covers a broader area of obvious need.

Suggested Citation

  • Krenz, Ronald D., 1964. "Projection of Farm Numbers for North Dakota With Markov Chains," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 16(3), pages 1-7, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersja:145843
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.145843
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Ernest E., 1971. "Future Structure Of The Texas Cattle Feeding Industry As Projected By Transition Probabilities Utilizing A Convex Program," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Legrand D. F, Saint-Cyr, 2017. "Farm heterogeneity and agricultural policy impacts on size dynamics: evidence from France," Working Papers SMART 17-04, INRAE UMR SMART.
    3. Singh, Mahendra, 2008. "Structural Changes in Horticulture Sector in India: Retrospect and Prospect for XIth Five Year Plan," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 1-17.
    4. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2016. "Farm segmentation and agricultural policy impacts on structural change: evidence from France," 149th Seminar, October 27-28, 2016, Rennes, France 244789, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Stavins, R. N. & Stanton, B. F., 1980. "Alternative Procedures For Estimating The Size Distribution Of Farms," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-6, October.
    6. Madior Fall & Laurent Piet & Muriel Roger, 2010. "Trends in the French commercial farm population," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(3), pages 279-295.
    7. Dent, Warren Thomas & Ballintine, Richard, 1971. "A Review Of The Estimation Of Transition Probabilities In Markov Chains," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 15(2), pages 1-13, August.
    8. Burnham, Bruce O., 1973. "Markov Intertemporal Land Use Simulation Model," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(1), pages 1-6, July.
    9. Stanton, B.F. & Olson, K.D., 1990. "The Impacts Of Structural Change And The Future Of American Agriculture," 1990 Conference, January 6-9, Albuquerque, New Mexico 260184, Regional Research Committe NC-181: Determinants of Farm Size and Structure.
    10. Stavins, R. N. & Stanton, B. F., 1980. "Alternative Procedures For Estimating The Size Distribution Of Farms," Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-6, October.
    11. Piet, Laurent, 2008. "The evolution of farm size distribution: revisiting the Markov chain model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44269, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Mills, Frank L., 1984. "The Decline of Agriculture and Projection of the Number of Farm Units in the United States Virgin Islands," 20th Annual Meeting, October 21-26, 1984, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands 261549, Caribbean Food Crops Society.
    13. Piet, Laurent, 2011. "Assessing structural change in agriculture with a parametric Markov chain model. Illustrative applications to EU-15 and the USA," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Lin, William W. & Coffman, George & Penn, J. B., 1980. "U.S. Farm Numbers, Sizes, and Related Structural Dimensions: Projections to Year 2000," Technical Bulletins 157730, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. Corra, Greg S. & Butler, Leslie J. & Cornell, L.D., 1982. "A Note on Measuring Income Instability and Inequality on Australian Sheep Farms," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(01), pages 1-9, April.
    16. Smith, Matthew G., 1988. "A Conditional Approach To Projecting Farm Structure," Staff Reports 278025, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    17. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    18. N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2004. "Causality and error correction in Markov chain: Inflation in India revisited," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 366, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.

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    Keywords

    Farm Management; Production Economics;

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