IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaae08/44269.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The evolution of farm size distribution: revisiting the Markov chain model

Author

Listed:
  • Piet, Laurent

Abstract

In this paper, a continuous version of the Markov Chain Model (MCM) is proposed to project the number and the population structure of farms. It is then applied to the population of professional French farms. Rather than working directly with transition probabilities as in the traditional, discontinuous, MCM, this approach relies on the close but not identical concept of growth rate probabilities and exploits the Gibrat’s law of proportionate effects which appears to be supported by the French data. It is shown that the proposed continuous MCM is a more general approach, since it enables to derive more in-depth detail on the distribution of the projected population and the traditional MCM transition probability matrix can be easily reconstructed from the estimated growth rate probabilities. Though the continuous MCM is presented in this paper in a stationary framework, it should be possible to develop a non-stationary version in a similar way traditional MCMs are now made non-stationary.

Suggested Citation

  • Piet, Laurent, 2008. "The evolution of farm size distribution: revisiting the Markov chain model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44269, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:44269
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.44269
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/44269/files/589.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.44269?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zepeda, Lydia, 1995. "Technical Change and the Structure of Production: A Non-stationary Markov Analysis," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 22(1), pages 41-60.
    2. Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 357-373, October.
    3. Edwards, Clark & Smith, Matthew G. & Peterson, R. Neal, 1985. "The Changing Distribution of Farms by Size: A Markov Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 37(4), pages 1-16.
    4. Nejla Ben Arfa & Karine Daniel & Florence Jacquet & Kostas Karantininis, 2015. "Agricultural Policies and Structural Change in French Dairy Farms: A Nonstationary Markov Model," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 63(1), pages 19-42, March.
    5. Karantininis, Kostas, 2002. "Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 275-290, March.
    6. M. C. Hallberg, 1969. "Projecting the Size Distribution of Agricultural Firms—An Application of a Markov Process with Non-Stationary Transition Probabilities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 289-302.
    7. Christoph R. Weiss, 1999. "Farm Growth and Survival: Econometric Evidence for Individual Farms in Upper Austria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 103-116.
    8. Mike Massow & Alfons Weersink & Calum G. Turvey, 1992. "Dynamics of Structural Change in the Ontario Hog Industry," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 40(1), pages 93-107, March.
    9. Hammond, Jerome W., 1994. "Trends In The Size Distribution Of Dairy Farms In Minnesota And Wisconsin," Staff Papers 13304, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    10. Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Polman, Nico B.P. & Slangen, Louis H.G., 2005. "Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24526, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. T. C. Lee & G. G. Judge & T. Takayama, 1965. "On Estimating the Transition Probabilities of a Markov Process," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 742-762.
    12. Krenz, Ronald D., 1964. "Projection of Farm Numbers for North Dakota With Markov Chains," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 16(3), pages 1-7, July.
    13. Disney, W. Terry & Duffy, Patricia A. & Hardy, William E., 1988. "A Markov Chain Analysis of Pork Farm Size Distributions in the South," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 57-64, December.
    14. Tonini, Axel & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2007. "Modelling the Dairy Farm Size Distribution in Poland Using an Instrumental Variable Generalized Cross Entropy Markov Approach," 104th Seminar, September 5-8, 2007, Budapest, Hungary 7784, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2002. "An Analysis of the Impact of Alternative EU Dairy Policies on the Size Distribution of Dutch Dairy Farms: an Information Based Approach to the Non-Stationary Markov Chain Model," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24892, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Slangen, Louis H.G., 2005. "Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors," 94th Seminar, April 9-10, 2005, Ashford, UK 24441, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. James A. MacMillan & F. L. Tung & John R. Tulloch, 1974. "Migration Analysis and Farm Number Projection Models: A Synthesis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(2), pages 292-299.
    18. Rahelizatovo, Noro C. & Gillespie, Jeffrey M., 1999. "Dairy Farm Size, Entry, and Exit in a Declining Production Region," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 333-347, August.
    19. Lydia Zepeda, 1995. "Asymmetry and Nonstationarity in the Farm Size Distribution of Wisconsin Milk Producers: An Aggregate Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(4), pages 837-852.
    20. Daniel Shapiro & Ray D. Bollman & Philip Ehrensaft, 1987. "Farm Size and Growth in Canada," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(2), pages 477-483.
    21. Disney, W. Terry & Duffy, Patricia A. & Hardy, William E., Jr., 1988. "A Markov Chain Analysis Of Pork Farm Size Distributions In The South," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 1-8, December.
    22. Daniel I. Padberg, 1962. "The Use of Markov Processes in Measuring Changes in Market Structure," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 44(1), pages 189-199.
    23. Bernard F. Stanton & Lauri Kettunen, 1967. "Potential Entrants and Projections in Markov Process Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 633-642.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mikkel Bojesen & Hans Skov-Petersen & Morten Gylling, 2013. "Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production: spatial representation of Markov chains," IFRO Working Paper 2013/16, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    2. Hoveid, Oyvind & Stokstad, Grete, 2011. "A model for prediction of spatial farm structure," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114529, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Differences of farm structural change across European regions," Discussion Papers 162879, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    4. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Landi, Chiara & Stefani, Gianluca & Rocchi, Benedetto & Lombardi, Ginevra V. & Giampaolo, Sabina, 2013. "Determinants of Structural Change in the agricultural sector: An Empirical Analysis of Farm Exit in Tuscany," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149893, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Legrand D. F, Saint-Cyr, 2017. "Farm heterogeneity and agricultural policy impacts on size dynamics: evidence from France," Working Papers SMART 17-04, INRAE UMR SMART.
    3. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Differences of farm structural change across European regions," Discussion Papers 162879, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    4. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2016. "Accounting for farm heterogeneity in the assessment of agricultural policy impacts on structural change," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2016. "Farm segmentation and agricultural policy impacts on structural change: evidence from France," 149th Seminar, October 27-28, 2016, Rennes, France 244789, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Karantininis, Kostas, 2002. "Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 275-290, March.
    7. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.
    8. Madior Fall & Laurent Piet & Muriel Roger, 2010. "Trends in the French commercial farm population," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(3), pages 279-295.
    9. Legrand D. F. Saint‐Cyr, 2022. "Heterogeneous farm‐size dynamics and impacts of subsidies from agricultural policy: Evidence from France," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 893-923, September.
    10. Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 1-17, October.
    11. Huettel, Silke & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2008. "Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands - A Markov Chain Analysis," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Jeffrey M. Gillespie & Joan R. Fulton, 2001. "A Markov chain analysis of the size of hog production firms in the United States," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 557-570.
    13. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas & Perez Dominguez, Ignacio, 2006. "Working paper: Literature Review of Approaches to Estimate Structural Change," Reports 9304, Wageningen University, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society.
    14. Dent, Warren Thomas & Ballintine, Richard, 1971. "A Review Of The Estimation Of Transition Probabilities In Markov Chains," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 15(2), pages 1-13, August.
    15. Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Longworth, Natasha & Huettel, Silke, 2005. "Dairy Farm Size Distribution in East and West: Evolution and Sensitivity to Structural and Policy Variables: Case-Studies of the Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24772, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Piet, Laurent, 2011. "Assessing structural change in agriculture with a parametric Markov chain model. Illustrative applications to EU-15 and the USA," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Smith, Matthew G., 1988. "A Conditional Approach To Projecting Farm Structure," Staff Reports 278025, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    18. Landi, Chiara & Stefani, Gianluca & Rocchi, Benedetto & Lombardi, Ginevra V. & Giampaolo, Sabina, 2013. "Determinants of Structural Change in the agricultural sector: An Empirical Analysis of Farm Exit in Tuscany," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149893, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    19. Niskanen, Olli & Iho, Antti & Kalliovirta, Leena, 2020. "Scenario for structural development of livestock production in the Baltic littoral countries," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    20. Rahelizatovo, Noro C. & Gillespie, Jeffrey M., 1999. "Dairy Farm Size, Entry, And Exit In A Declining Production Region," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-15, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Farm Management;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:44269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.