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Using market share and multiplicative competitive interaction models to explain structural change in the German agricultural sector

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  • Neuenfeldt, Sebastian
  • Röder, Norbert
  • Gocht, Alexander
  • Espinosa, Maria
  • Gomez y Paloma, S.

Abstract

We use a Multiplicative Competitive Interaction (MCI) model, a popular approach in marketing research, to explain the change in farm specialization over time. The change in farm specialization is measured by the variations of the Standard Gross Margin (SGM) shares. The model is applied to the German Farm Accountancy Data (FADN) using the years 1990 until 2008. Therefore, a MCI model was developed using various lagged explanatory variables, evaluated using a forward selection based on log likelihood ratio test. Using an in-sample forecast the approach correctly predicts 99% of the farm specialization development.

Suggested Citation

  • Neuenfeldt, Sebastian & Röder, Norbert & Gocht, Alexander & Espinosa, Maria & Gomez y Paloma, S., 2014. "Using market share and multiplicative competitive interaction models to explain structural change in the German agricultural sector," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182955, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae14:182955
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.182955
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/182955/files/MCI_-_Poster_Paper.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Will, Birgit E. & Schmidtchen, Dieter, 2008. "Fighting cartels: some economics of council regulation (EC) 1/2003," CSLE Discussion Paper Series 2008-02, Saarland University, CSLE - Center for the Study of Law and Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Espinosa, Maria & Gocht, Alexander & Heckelei, Thomas & Paloma, Sergio Gomez y, 2016. "Incorporating farm structural change in models assessing the Common Agricultural Policy: An application in the CAPRI farm type model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1040-1059.
    2. Neuenfeldt, Sebastian & Gocht, Alexander & Ciaian, Pavel & Heckelei, Thomas & Jongeneel, Roel, 2017. "Structural Change In European Agriculture," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261141, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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