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The Changing Distribution of Farms by Size: A Markov Analysis

Author

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  • Edwards, Clark
  • Smith, Matthew G.
  • Peterson, R. Neal

Abstract

Farm numbers and average farm size in the United States have held about constant since the 1974 Census. but the proportion of mid-sized farms has decreased This pattern follows four decades of a strong trend toward fewer and larger farms Markov analysis IS a standard procedure for projecting changes In the number and distribution of firms In an Industry based on observations of recent changes Previous applications to the US farm sector have met With difficulty because of a lack of appropriate data This article applies Markov analysis to a recently available longitudinal data set for 1974-78 from the Census of Agriculture The model predicts reasonably well the actual changes during 1978-82 and indicates that the future distribution of farms by acres per farm will be more like the present than the present is like the past

Suggested Citation

  • Edwards, Clark & Smith, Matthew G. & Peterson, R. Neal, 1985. "The Changing Distribution of Farms by Size: A Markov Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 37(4), pages 1-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersja:149283
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.149283
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stanton, B.F., 1989. "Changes In Farm Size And Structure In American Agriculture In The Twentieth Century," 1989 Conference, January 7-10, Tucson, Arizona 260156, Regional Research Committe NC-181: Determinants of Farm Size and Structure.
    2. Gale, Fred, 1994. "The New Generation of American Farmers: Farm Entry and Exit Prospects for the 1990's," Agricultural Economic Reports 308417, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Dries, Liesbeth & Swinnen, Johan F. M., 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment, Vertical Integration, and Local Suppliers: Evidence from the Polish Dairy Sector," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1525-1544, September.
    4. MacDonald, James M. & Hoppe, Robert A. & Banker, David E., 2004. "The Evolution of Structural Change in the U.S. Farm Sector," IAPRAP\IATRC Summer Symposium, Adjusting to Domestic and International Agricultural Reform in Industrial Countries, June 6-7, 2004, Philadelphia, PA, 15759, International Agricultural Policy Reform and Adjustment Project (IAPRAP).
    5. Nobe, Kenneth C. & Fruin, Jerry E. & Skold, Melvin D. & Trock, Warren L., 1986. "The Agricultural Crisis in Colorado: Causes, Future Prospects and State-Level Response Options," Research Reports 316675, Colorado State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    6. Smith, Matthew G., 1987. "Entry, Exit, and the Age Distribution of Farm Operators, 1974-82," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 39(4), pages 1-10.
    7. Mary Clare Ahearn & Penni Korb & Jet Yee, 2009. "Producer Dynamics in Agriculture: Empirical Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 369-391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Tauer, Loren W. & Mishra, Ashok K., 2006. "Can the small dairy farm remain competitive in US agriculture?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 458-468, October.
    9. Piet, Laurent, 2008. "The evolution of farm size distribution: revisiting the Markov chain model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44269, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Jean-Paul Chavas & Gilbert Magand, 1988. "A dynamic analysis of the size distribution of firms: The case of the US dairy industry," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(4), pages 315-329.
    11. Carlin, Thomas A., 1988. "Strong Communities - Strong Farms: What Is The Connection?," 1988 Conference, January 16-19, San Antonio, Texas 260149, Regional Research Committe NC-181: Determinants of Farm Size and Structure.
    12. Smith, Matthew G., 1988. "A Conditional Approach To Projecting Farm Structure," Staff Reports 278025, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Johnson, James D., 1989. "Firm Level Agricultural Data Collected And Managed By The Federal Government," 1989 Conference, January 7-10, Tucson, Arizona 260161, Regional Research Committe NC-181: Determinants of Farm Size and Structure.
    14. Stanton, B.F., 1989. "Changes in Farm Size and Structure in American Agriculture in the Twentieth Century," Staff Papers 197561, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    15. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Stanton, Bernard F., 1990. "Changes in Farm Size and Structure in American Agriculture in the Twentieth Century," Staff Papers 121535, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    17. Temel, Tugrul, 2011. "New facts for old debates: Farm size and productivity in US agriculture," MPRA Paper 31920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Carlin, Thomas A. & Saupe, William E., 1990. "Structural Change In Agriculture And Its Relationship To Rural Communities And Rural Life," 1990 Conference, January 6-9, Albuquerque, New Mexico 260178, Regional Research Committe NC-181: Determinants of Farm Size and Structure.
    19. Reimund, Donn A. & Stucker, Thomas A. & Brooks, Nora L., 1987. "Large-Scale Farms in Perspective," Agricultural Information Bulletins 309351, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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