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Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Vetter

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Julia Reinhardt

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Martina Flörke

    (University of Kassel)

  • Ann Griensven

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel
    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education)

  • Fred Hattermann

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Shaochun Huang

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Hagen Koch

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Ilias G. Pechlivanidis

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

  • Stefan Plötner

    (Leibniz University of Hannover, Institute of Water Resources Management)

  • Ousmane Seidou

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Buda Su

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • R. Willem Vervoort

    (The University of Sydney)

  • Valentina Krysanova

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in twelve large-scale river basins worldwide, considering the mean flow and the two runoff quantiles Q10 (high flow), and Q90 (low flow). First, changes in annual low flow, annual high flow and mean annual runoff were evaluated using simulation results from a multi-hydrological-model (nine hydrological models, HMs) and a multi-scenario approach (four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs, five CMIP5 General Circulation Models, GCMs). Then, three major sources of uncertainty (from GCMs, RCPs and HMs) were analyzed using the ANOVA method, which allows for decomposing variances and indicating the main sources of uncertainty along the GCM-RCP-HM model chain. Robust changes in at least one runoff quantile or the mean flow, meaning a high or moderate agreement of GCMs and HMs, were found for five river basins: the Lena, Tagus, Rhine, Ganges, and Mackenzie. The analysis of uncertainties showed that in general the largest share of uncertainty is related to GCMs, followed by RCPs, and the smallest to HMs. The hydrological models are the lowest contributors of uncertainty for Q10 and mean flow, but their share is more significant for Q90.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Vetter & Julia Reinhardt & Martina Flörke & Ann Griensven & Fred Hattermann & Shaochun Huang & Hagen Koch & Ilias G. Pechlivanidis & Stefan Plötner & Ousmane Seidou & Buda Su & R. Willem Vervoo, 2017. "Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 419-433, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1794-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1794-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Kay & H. Davies & V. Bell & R. Jones, 2009. "Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 41-63, January.
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    1. Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla & Aissatou Faye & Nana Ama Browne Klutse & Kangbeni Dimobe, 2018. "Projected increased risk of water deficit over major West African river basins under future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 247-258, November.
    2. Shanshan Wen & Buda Su & Yanjun Wang & Jianqing Zhai & Hemin Sun & Ziyan Chen & Jinlong Huang & Anqian Wang & Tong Jiang, 2020. "Comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models for climate change impact assessment in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1207-1226, December.
    3. Shaochun Huang & Harsh Shah & Bibi S. Naz & Narayan Shrestha & Vimal Mishra & Prasad Daggupati & Uttam Ghimire & Tobias Vetter, 2020. "Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1143-1164, December.
    4. Pengcheng Qin & Hongmei Xu & Min Liu & Lüliu Liu & Chan Xiao & Iman Mallakpour & Matin Rahnamay Naeini & Kuolin Hsu & Soroosh Sorooshian, 2022. "Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Jew Das & Alin Treesa & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on a River Basin: Analysis of Uncertainty Using REA & Possibilistic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 4833-4852, December.
    6. A. L. Kay & V. A. Bell & B. P. Guillod & R. G. Jones & A. C. Rudd, 2018. "National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 585-599, April.
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    8. Rutger Dankers & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, 2020. "Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1379-1397, December.
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    11. Yi He & Desmond Manful & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Timothy J. Osborn & Jeff Price & Rhosanna Jenkins & Craig Wallace & Dai Yamazaki, 2022. "Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    12. Uttam Ghimire & Mukand S. Babel & Sangam Shrestha & Govindarajalu Srinivasan, 2019. "A multi-temporal analysis of streamflow using multiple CMIP5 GCMs in the Upper Ayerawaddy Basin, Myanmar," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 59-79, July.
    13. Olkeba Tolessa Leta & Aly I. El-Kadi & Henrietta Dulai, 2018. "Impact of Climate Change on Daily Streamflow and Its Extreme Values in Pacific Island Watersheds," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, June.
    14. Pablo Borges de Amorim & Pedro B. Chaffe, 2019. "Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 37-57, July.
    15. Zeng, Yujie & Liu, Dedi & Guo, Shenglian & Xiong, Lihua & Liu, Pan & Chen, Jie & Yin, Jiabo & Wu, Zhenhui & Zhou, Wan, 2023. "Assessing the effects of water resources allocation on the uncertainty propagation in the water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    16. Valentina Krysanova & Jamal Zaherpour & Iulii Didovets & Simon N. Gosling & Dieter Gerten & Naota Hanasaki & Hannes Müller Schmied & Yadu Pokhrel & Yusuke Satoh & Qiuhong Tang & Yoshihide Wada, 2020. "How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1353-1377, December.
    17. Xumin Zhang & Simin Qu & Jijie Shen & Yingbing Chen & Xiaoqiang Yang & Peng Jiang & Peng Shi, 2023. "Effect of Distinct Evaluation Objectives on Different Precipitation Downscaling Methods and the Corresponding Potential Impacts on Catchment Runoff Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 1913-1930, March.
    18. Didovets, Iulii & Lobanova, Anastasia & Krysanova, Valentina & Menz, Christoph & Babagalieva, Zhanna & Nurbatsina, Aliya & Gavrilenko, Nadejda & Khamidov, Vohid & Umirbekov, Atabek & Qodirov, Sobir & , 2021. "Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 34.
    19. Vimal Mishra & Harsh Shah & M. Rocío Rivas López & Anastasia Lobanova & Valentina Krysanova, 2020. "Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1187-1205, December.
    20. Andrew C. Ross & Raymond G. Najjar, 2019. "Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 407-428, December.
    21. Laura Şmuleac & Ciprian Rujescu & Adrian Șmuleac & Florin Imbrea & Isidora Radulov & Dan Manea & Anișoara Ienciu & Tabita Adamov & Raul Pașcalău, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change in the Banat Plain, Western Romania, on the Accessibility of Water for Crop Production in Agriculture," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, September.

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