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Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin?

Author

Listed:
  • Vimal Mishra

    (Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar
    Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar)

  • Harsh Shah

    (Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar)

  • M. Rocío Rivas López

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Anastasia Lobanova

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Valentina Krysanova

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

Abstract

Understanding the projected changes in the mean and high flows remains a significant challenge due to uncertainty arising from global climate models (GCMs) and hydrological models. Moreover, the calibration approaches used for hydrological models can influence the climate change impact assessment. We use the combination of three hydrological models, four global climate models, and two RCPs (2.6 and 8.5) to analyze the projected changes in mean flow, high flow, and the frequency of high flow under the projected future climate in the Godavari River basin (GRB) until the gauge Tekra. The two evaluation approaches: a simple approach (TASK A) based on the calibration and validation at a single streamflow gauge station and a comprehensive approach (TASK B) based on multi-variable and multisite calibration and validation and trend analysis were employed to evaluate the hydrological models. The differences between the projected changes in mean and high flows calculated using models after TASK A and TASK B were estimated. Our results show that the differences can be up to 10–13% in mean annual flow and high flow, and up to 40% in high flow frequency. The comprehensively evaluated hydrological models were chosen for impact assessment, and they project increases in mean and high flows, and the frequency of high flow at all four gauge stations in the GRB. The projected increases are higher under RCP 8.5 and in the End century (2071–2100). Our results demonstrate the importance of the comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models in advance of climate change impact assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Vimal Mishra & Harsh Shah & M. Rocío Rivas López & Anastasia Lobanova & Valentina Krysanova, 2020. "Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1187-1205, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02847-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02847-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vimal Mishra & Rohini Kumar & Harsh L. Shah & Luis Samaniego & S. Eisner & Tao Yang, 2017. "Multimodel assessment of sensitivity and uncertainty of evapotranspiration and a proxy for available water resources under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 451-465, April.
    2. Tobias Vetter & Julia Reinhardt & Martina Flörke & Ann Griensven & Fred Hattermann & Shaochun Huang & Hagen Koch & Ilias G. Pechlivanidis & Stefan Plötner & Ousmane Seidou & Buda Su & R. Willem Vervoo, 2017. "Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 419-433, April.
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    4. S. Eisner & M. Flörke & A. Chamorro & P. Daggupati & C. Donnelly & J. Huang & Y. Hundecha & H. Koch & A. Kalugin & I. Krylenko & V. Mishra & M. Piniewski & L. Samaniego & O. Seidou & M. Wallner & V. K, 2017. "An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 401-417, April.
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