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Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models

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  • Ye Tian
  • Yue-Ping Xu
  • Xu-Jie Zhang

Abstract

This study analyses the extreme high flows in Jinhua River basin under the impact of climate change for the near future 2011–2040. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of using the bias corrected RCM outputs as input on the extreme flows by hydrological models. The future projections are obtained through the PRECIS model with resolution of 50 km × 50 km under climate scenario A1B. The daily precipitation from the PRECIS is bias corrected by distribution based scaling method. Afterwards, three hydrological models (GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang) are calibrated and applied to simulate the daily discharge in the future. The hydrological models are driven with both bias corrected precipitation and raw precipitation from the PRECIS model for 2011–2040. It is found that after bias correction, the amount, frequency, intensity and variance of the precipitation from the regional climate model resemble the observation better. For the three hydrological models, the simulated annual maximum discharges are higher by using the raw precipitation from PRECIS than by bias corrected precipitation at any return period. Meanwhile, the uncertainties from different models cannot be neglected. The largest difference between three models is about 2,100 m 3 /s. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:8:p:2871-2888
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0321-4
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    3. Hadush Meresa & Yongqiang Zhang, 2021. "Contrasting Uncertainties in Estimating Floods and Low Flow Extremes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1775-1795, April.
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    6. Mustafa Erkan Turan & Mehmet Ali Yurdusev, 2016. "Fuzzy Conceptual Hydrological Model for Water Flow Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 653-667, January.
    7. David Werth & Kuo-Fu Chen, 2015. "The Application of a Statistical Downscaling Process to Derive 21st Century River Flow Predictions Using a Global Climate Simulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 849-861, February.
    8. Hong Li & Chong-Yu Xu & Stein Beldring & Lena Tallaksen & Sharad Jain, 2016. "Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 843-859, January.
    9. Moon-Hwan Lee & Deg-Hyo Bae & Eun-Soon Im, 2019. "Effect of the Horizontal Resolution of Climate Simulations on the Hydrological Representation of Extreme Low and High Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4653-4666, October.
    10. Adam P. Piotrowski & Jaroslaw J. Napiorkowski & Marzena Osuch, 2019. "Relationship Between Calibration Time and Final Performance of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 19-37, January.
    11. Sheng Sheng & Hua Chen & Fu-Qiang Guo & Jie Chen & Chong-Yu Xu & Sheng-lian Guo, 2020. "Transferability of a Conceptual Hydrological Model across Different Temporal Scales and Basin Sizes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2953-2968, July.
    12. Pao-Shan Yu & Tao-Chang Yang & Chen-Min Kuo & Yi-Tai Wang, 2014. "A Stochastic Approach for Seasonal Water-Shortage Probability Forecasting Based on Seasonal Weather Outlook," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3905-3920, September.
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    14. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Huaiwei Sun & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Muhammad Tayyab, 2017. "Impact of Distribution Type in Bayes Probability Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 961-977, February.

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