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Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources

Author

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  • Rutger Dankers

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

    (Polish Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

This paper reviews the sources of uncertainty in physical climate impact assessments. It draws on examples from related fields such as climate modelling and numerical weather prediction in discussing how to interpret the results of multi-model ensembles and the role of model evaluation. Using large-scale, multi-model simulations of hydrological extremes as an example, we demonstrate how large uncertainty at the local scale does not preclude more robust conclusions at the global scale. Finally, some recommendations are made: climate impact studies should be clear about the questions they want to address, transparent about the uncertainties involved, and honest about the assumptions being made.

Suggested Citation

  • Rutger Dankers & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, 2020. "Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1379-1397, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02858-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Alison Kay, 2022. "Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and nested convection-permitting model data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-19, July.

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