IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v121y2013i4p771-785.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France

Author

Listed:
  • Florence Habets
  • Julien Boé
  • Michel Déqué
  • Agnès Ducharne
  • Simon Gascoin
  • Ali Hachour
  • Eric Martin
  • Christian Pagé
  • Eric Sauquet
  • Laurent Terray
  • Dominique Thiéry
  • Ludovic Oudin
  • Pascal Viennot

Abstract

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about −14 % and −2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and −3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Florence Habets & Julien Boé & Michel Déqué & Agnès Ducharne & Simon Gascoin & Ali Hachour & Eric Martin & Christian Pagé & Eric Sauquet & Laurent Terray & Dominique Thiéry & Ludovic Oudin & Pascal Vi, 2013. "Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 771-785, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:121:y:2013:i:4:p:771-785
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0934-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-0934-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-0934-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Kay & H. Davies & V. Bell & R. Jones, 2009. "Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 41-63, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jordan Labbe & Hélène Celle & Jean-Luc Devidal & Julie Albaric & Gilles Mailhot, 2023. "Combined Impacts of Climate Change and Water Withdrawals on the Water Balance at the Watershed Scale—The Case of the Allier Alluvial Hydrosystem (France)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rei Itsukushima & Yohei Ogahara & Yuki Iwanaga & Tatsuro Sato, 2018. "Investigating the Influence of Various Stormwater Runoff Control Facilities on Runoff Control Efficiency in a Small Catchment Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-12, February.
    2. Li-Chi Chiang & Indrajeet Chaubey & Nien-Ming Hong & Yu-Pin Lin & Tao Huang, 2012. "Implementation of BMP Strategies for Adaptation to Climate Change and Land Use Change in a Pasture-Dominated Watershed," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-31, October.
    3. Nima Fayaz & Laura E. Condon & David G. Chandler, 2020. "Evaluating the Sensitivity of Projected Reservoir Reliability to the Choice of Climate Projection: A Case Study of Bull Run Watershed, Portland, Oregon," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 1991-2009, April.
    4. Simon Gosling & Glenn McGregor & Jason Lowe, 2012. "The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: an example with heat-related mortality change estimates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 217-231, May.
    5. Gordon Aitken & Lindsay Beevers & Simon Parry & Katie Facer-Childs, 2023. "Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(11), pages 1-28, November.
    6. Indira Pokhrel & Ajay Kalra & Md Mafuzur Rahaman & Ranjeet Thakali, 2020. "Forecasting of Future Flooding and Risk Assessment under CMIP6 Climate Projection in Neuse River, North Carolina," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-23, August.
    7. Viola, Flavio M. & Paiva, Susana L.D. & Savi, Marcelo A., 2010. "Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(16), pages 1964-1978.
    8. Carolina Natel Moura & Sílvio Luís Rafaeli Neto & Claudia Guimarães Camargo Campos & Eder Alexandre Schatz Sá, 2020. "Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change in a Well-preserved Upland Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2255-2267, June.
    9. Jaewon Jung & Sungeun Jung & Junhyeong Lee & Myungjin Lee & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.
    10. Yi Yang & Jianping Tang, 2023. "Downscaling and uncertainty analysis of future concurrent long-duration dry and hot events in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-25, February.
    11. Tobias Vetter & Julia Reinhardt & Martina Flörke & Ann Griensven & Fred Hattermann & Shaochun Huang & Hagen Koch & Ilias G. Pechlivanidis & Stefan Plötner & Ousmane Seidou & Buda Su & R. Willem Vervoo, 2017. "Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 419-433, April.
    12. Alison Kay, 2022. "Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and nested convection-permitting model data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-19, July.
    13. S. Camici & L. Brocca & T. Moramarco, 2017. "Accuracy versus variability of climate projections for flood assessment in central Italy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 273-286, March.
    14. Shirin Karimi & Bahman Jabbarian Amiri & Arash Malekian, 2019. "Similarity Metrics-Based Uncertainty Analysis of River Water Quality Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 1927-1945, April.
    15. Eun-Sung Chung & Kwangjae Won & Yeonjoo Kim & Hosun Lee, 2014. "Water Resource Vulnerability Characteristics by District’s Population Size in a Changing Climate Using Subjective and Objective Weights," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-17, September.
    16. Richard Arsenault & François Brissette & Jean-Stéphane Malo & Marie Minville & Robert Leconte, 2013. "Structural and Non-Structural Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for the Péribonka Water Resource System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2075-2087, May.
    17. L. Wang & P. Gelder & J. Vrijling & S. Maskey & R. Ranasinghe, 2015. "Risk-Averse Economic Optimization in the Adaptation of River Dikes to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 359-377, January.
    18. Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    19. C. Harris & A. Quinn & J. Bridgeman, 2013. "Quantification of uncertainty sources in a probabilistic climate change assessment of future water shortages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 317-329, November.
    20. Michelle Vliet & Stephen Blenkinsop & Aidan Burton & Colin Harpham & Hans Broers & Hayley Fowler, 2012. "A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 249-277, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:121:y:2013:i:4:p:771-785. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.