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Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses

Author

Listed:
  • L. V. Noto

    (Università degli Studi di Palermo)

  • G. Cipolla

    (Università degli Studi di Palermo)

  • D. Pumo

    (Università degli Studi di Palermo)

  • A. Francipane

    (Università degli Studi di Palermo)

Abstract

The Mediterranean basin is particularly prone to climate change and vulnerable to its impacts. One of the most relevant consequences of climate change, especially for the southern Mediterranean regions, is certainly water scarcity as result of a reduction of surface runoff and groundwater levels. Despite the progress achieved in recent years in the field of climate change and its impact on water resources, results and outcomes should be treated with due caution since any future climate projection and derived implications are inevitably affected by a certain degree of uncertainty arising from each different stage of the entire modeling chain. This work offers a comprehensive overview of recent works on climate change in the Mediterranean basin, mainly focusing on the last ten years of research. Past and future trends on different components of the hydrological balance are discussed in a companion paper (Noto et al. 2022), while the present paper focuses on the problem of water availability and water scarcity. In addition, the work aims to discuss the most relevant sources of uncertainty related to climate change with the aim to gain awareness of climate change impact studies interpretation and reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • L. V. Noto & G. Cipolla & D. Pumo & A. Francipane, 2023. "Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2307-2323, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03444-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03444-w
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    2. Marco Guerzoni & Luigi Riso & Maria Grazia Zoia, 2025. "Forecasting the Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Electricity Prices in Italy: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach with Enhanced Variable Selection," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0043, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

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